Singapore’s leadership one step ahead


December 13, 2018

After years of winnowing through candidates, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has anointed Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat as his successor. Back in 2016 there were six candidates for the role but one by one they were removed from contention, mostly by mechanisms in the form of gifts from the Prime Minister. One of the stronger candidates, for instance, was unexpectedly made Speaker of the House, which put him out of contention.

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There is no formal process of selection and the decisions are made behind closed doors, with narratives about the selection process generated retrospectively. The trigger for the final declaration of Heng Swee Keat as the designated successor was his election to the rather obscure position of First Assistant Secretary-General of the ruling People’s Action Party. This election was initially greeted as an indicator that Heng Swee Keat was merely the front runner to be next Prime Minister but in the space of a day it morphed into a declaration of succession.

Heng Swee Keat was already known to be Lee Hsien Loong’s favourite even before 2016. When Heng Swee Keat suffered a stroke during a Cabinet meeting in May 2016 and spent six days in a coma, it was universally accepted as being a blow to Lee Hsien Loong’s succession plans. Only extreme medical intervention saved Heng Swee Keat’s career and brought him back into contention. Since then, the process of selecting the next prime minister has suffered unexplained delays. Now we know why the delay was necessary: to give Heng Swee Keat a chance to settle doubts about his health, while the other candidates were dropped.

Heng Swee Keat was never an obvious candidate. He has a relatively narrow range of Cabinet and professional experience and is a rather awkward public speaker. No one doubts his technocratic competence, nor that he will be ‘a safe pair of hands’ but few, if any, suggest that he has strong political skills. So why did Lee Hsien Loong endorse Heng Swee Keat ahead of younger, stronger and healthier candidates with better political instincts?

The question is easier to answer if we begin by asking who will be the next prime minister after Heng Swee Keat. Lee Hsien Loong’s son, Li Hongyi, is currently a senior civil servant working in one of the divisions of the Prime Ministers’ Office and has been identified by his close relatives as harbouring political ambitions. Li Hongyi denies that he wants to follow in his father’s and grandfather’s footsteps but he and his mother have been carefully cultivating his media and social media profiles as one would for an aspiring politician. Rumours are now circulating that he will enter parliament at the next General Election in 2020.

Lee Hsien Loong is 66 and indicated he would like to step down by age 70, which would make Heng Swee Keat about 61 when he becomes prime minister. If his health holds up, Heng Swee Keat can expect to enjoy a decade or perhaps longer as Prime Minister, by which time Li Hongyi would be 45 to 50 — an acceptable age for a prime ministerial aspirant.

Granted that any of the six original candidates would have met the basic threshold of political and administrative competence, the attraction of Heng Swee Keat is his age, health record and ordinary communication skills. In short, he is not likely to disturb a succession plan by overstaying his welcome — as did former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, who was supposed to be a stop gap between Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong but persisted in the job for 14 years.

The main risk of the Heng Swee Keat succession is that it leaves the government with a Prime Minister who has no record of being an effective politician (as opposed to an effective administrator) at a time when a number of political red flags have surfaced.

The most serious institutional issue is the government’s recent declaration that Housing and Development Board flats will have nil value at the end of their 99 year leases and at that point will revert to the government without compensation. This is a particularly uncomfortable issue because about 80 per cent of Singaporeans ‘own’ their flats and regard them as their main financial asset. The government has also spent decades talking up their values. Now it turns out that devaluing flats is part of its plan.

The government is not going to lose the next election but it does not like to leave anything to chance. In the absence of good political instincts and a mediocre record of administrative achievements, the Cabinet has upscaled the intensity of its repressive actions throughout 2018, continuing a trajectory that has been developing for several years.

This may be satisfactory as a short-term measure to retain control but it is not a great way to launch a new round of change in government, nor to lay the groundwork for the following generation.

Michael D. Barr is Associate Professor of International Relations at Flinders University and a Fellow of the Australian Academy of the Humanities.

This article is part of an EAF special feature series on 2018 in review and the year ahead.

 

 

6 thoughts on “Singapore’s leadership one step ahead

  1. The threat to Hsien Loong’s successor pick will come from the affable and baby-faced (as opposed to a screwed-up one) Tan Chuan Jin, a protégé of Goh Chok Tong. Hsien Loong foresaw this and removed him as Minister and downgraded him as Speaker of Parliament. I doubt Hsien Loong has staying power. I sense Chuan Jin will bounce back in good time

  2. Since most men’s base instinct and natural tendency is to be self-serving with regards to how they behave, how then does one desire to have, or even claim to practice, meritocracy, when favoritism, cronyism, and nepotism play a very significant role in one’s behavior (which perhaps, in the real world, is very likely the case)? Perhaps the loud cry of meritocracy serves only to whitewash what is actually being practiced?

  3. There is a possibility the chosen could be warming the PM’s seat for one of LHL’s siblings to take over down the road.

    Singaporeans should be of less concerned as long as the candidate is of quality, capability and integrity.

  4. To say that the government (HDB) will repossess the flat from the last owner upon reaching the 99 year lease without any compensation is hard to swallow. It will be most likely that the HDB will allow the owner to buy another flat direct from it.

  5. Whether Trump is a “good” or “bad” president would, like all things, depend on who you ask or tortured it out of him or her.

    Suppose Obama, like Kuan Yew or Hsien Loong, had a say on who succeeded him would he had chosen Trump or perhaps even Hillary or someone else and thus giving us a very World today, for better or worse?

    We are all geniuses after the event, and will have a lot to say about Hsien Loong’s choice of successor in due course if it comes to pass. I, at this moment, don’t see Heng Swee Keat as someone with any visible potential to be a great PM. His call to fame was being Kuan Yew’s principal secretary or something, but on the other hand that perhaps counts a lot seeing how devilishly difficult it must be to work directly under the great man whom I’ve not even seen in the flesh.

    Just like in the mind-boggling world of quantum physics, history very often has an uncanny ability to re-write itself every time historians take a tiny peek.

    I’ll therefore wait a while and be seen as a genius, at least to my own satisfaction.

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