The June 2016 by-elections: The Opposition and Mahathir thoroughly plastered


New York

June 22, 2016

The June 2016 by-elections: The Opposition and Mahathir thoroughly plastered

by Dr Bridget Welsh (Received via E-mail)

The by-election results for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are in. UMNO held onto their seats, and increased its majorities.

Najib got the formula: Cash is still King

Given the tragedy surrounding the polls stemming from the helicopter accident in Sarawak last month, the fact that by-elections disproportionately favour those with access to resources, and the reality that these contests were three-cornered fights with a divided opposition, these results are not unexpected.

The important implications of these by-elections lies less in the winning, but in the losing – as the shifts in campaigning, voting and political alignments reveal that old dreams are gone. Malaysian electoral politics is shifting, and all indications are that the direction is not toward a stronger, more vibrant polity that offers meaningful choices to the electorate.

Declining engagement

At this marker before the next general election, it is important to identity key trends. Importantly, voters are not engaging as in the past. This is evident in the decline in voter turnout. Malaysians are tired of the politicking and turning away from elections.

The drop in voter turnout from 2013 was a whopping 14 percent in Sungai Besar and 13 percent in Kuala Kangsar respectively. Importantly voter turnout levels were also a drop from 2008. What is even more revealing is the decline in voter registration more broadly, especially among younger Malaysians.

Voters are disappointed with the options provided and tired of a political contest that appears to be about the fight for power rather than the fight for representation. Voter disengagement advantages incumbents, as shown in the by-elections results, and this unhealthy trend reinforces the sense of disempowerment that has deepened with the governance scandals over the last year.

Both campaigns were devoid of any meaningful new messages. They were not about any real reform or policies that help Malaysians. Neither side had anything substantive or new to offer the electorate. Instead the campaign was about fighting enemies, be they Mahathir Mohamad, Najib Abdul Razak or Abdul Hadi Awang.

Battles over personalities dominated over the concerns of ordinary people as the past featured more than the future. If there was any issue that stood out, it was hudud, which was carefully placed by UMNO to serve as a distraction to reinforce opposition splits, fears and insecurities – emotions that favour the incumbent.

UMNO’s use of race and religion for campaigning is not new. This issue however became less about hudud than about the person who introduced the hudud bill, namely Hadi, as here too the election became about old strategies rather than new ones. The overall shallowness of the campaign speaks to the fatigue in the political system and the widening deficit of new ideas and leadership for moving the country forward.

To fill the vacuum, both sides turned to relying on resources and patronage in campaigning. Buying votes has now become the norm for the BN, especially in by-elections. Yet, the crass exchange of funds for votes was so blatant that it set a new low standard of vote-buying. The Electoral Commission seemed to endorse this practice.

While the BN may relish in their victory, this practice will be difficult to replicate on a national scale, especially given the rising debt and fiscal constraints tied to the economic mismanagement of the Najib administration. This mode is not viable to win GE14.

The opposition on its part has joined the goodie game. In an ‘if you can’t beat, then join them’ dynamic, Pakatan Harapan parties handed out rice and other sundries. The use of state funds (or rather people’s funds) were similarly used to woo electoral support, feeding the practice that elections are about what you get materially in the short term rather than in the long term.

The opposition has adopted a campaign tactic it will always lose, not only for the fact that they do not have the funds to be competitive, but more for the reality that it undercuts the opposition from any advantage they have to fall back on principles. For every bag of rice they distribute, they undercut all criticisms of an unfair electoral process. They are becoming what they said they were fighting against.

Loss of dreams

The move away from campaigning over ideas and defending principles underscores broader shifts in the political disengagement among the electorate at large. The stakes in Malaysian elections have changed. While 2008 was about change, and 2013 about the possibility of a change in government, current elections no longer appear to offer the option of meaningful difference.

Today it is not clear what the opposition stands for. These by-elections did not reveal an alternative political narrative for the opposition, a wasted opportunity to genuinely construct a new foundation. For many voters, the dream of change is dead.

It is thus no surprise that there were political realignments in voting, with some Chinese and Indians moving away from the opposition (although between 5-10 percent in a preliminary study of the data). This lack of viable alternative leadership also contributed to the increasing fragmentation among Malay voters. Malays are more divided in UMNO’s favour. The overall momentum is changing, from anger directed toward UMNO moving toward disappointment with the opposition for failing to meet expectations and achieve its promises.

The by-elections do however suggest emphatically that another dream is dying – this is of PAS and hudud. The biggest loser in the campaign was Hadi Awang’s PAS, as the results show that the traditional Islamist party cannot even win second place in a seat where it has repeatedly campaigned and even in a Malay heartland seat in Perak barely scraped through in second place. Preliminary analysis of the data shows that PAS held onto around a third of Malay voters, a record low in recent decades. Its connection to UMNO was electorally toxic for the party.

Not only is Hadi Awang undermining any hope of PAS governing, voters have shown emphatically that they care less about hudud, with the majority rejecting it as the centrepiece of a campaign. PAS was not rewarded for pushing its archaic exclusive moralism, a sign ahead that the party under Hadi Awang is heading towards a minor electoral status worse than 2004. The by-elections show clear signs that the dream of hudud is dying, as the voters have spoken what surveys have long shown – hudud does not win votes. Hadi Awang’s leadership is destroying the party – a dynamic that truly makes UMNO gleeful.

Votes of (no) confidence

Immediately after the polls there were many groups claiming victory. The first was Najib’s camp, with claims of a ‘vote of confidence’. This is a gross error in interpretation. Polls continue to show that Prime Minister Najib remains deeply unpopular – and his lack of presence in these by-elections (as compared to other senior leaders) was telling.

Supporters of the PM may live in a dream world of believing in confidence, but they are fooling themselves if they think that two by-elections will translate into a national mandate for their leader. The reality is that UMNO’s chances electorally are stronger without the scandal-ridden PM.

A second claim of victory came from Amanah, whose first entry into peninsular politics showed that they are a significant new Malay party. They performed well. This performance, however, rested very much on the support and machinery of their allies, especially the DAP. This dependence is not healthy. Although it received multi-ethnic support, considerable support for the party came from Chinese voters.

Amanah under a Boria Joker from Penang

Amanah has a long way to go to show it is an equal independent partner in the opposition alliance, and faces an uphill battle to bring in mass Malay support. A key step in that regard is to stop its myopic fight with PAS and focus on what it offers on its own and for the country as a whole.

Another claim has revolved around the participation of Dr Mahathir, with UMNO belittling his role. The results show that support of Mahathir for the opposition did not translate into cutting into significantly UMNO’s political base, as the party held its own. What is not clear is how this happened.

Neutralising dissent within UMNO was effective as incentives and intimidation were used in the campaign, with grassroots leaders inside the party feeling the effects. Again, these tactics will be difficult to replicate at the national level. UMNO’s greatest enemy has been itself, and divisions within the party and its base remain.

The most substantive vote of confidence surrounded the opposition as a whole. Taken together (PAS and Amanah) the opposition support remained high at 45 percent of the electorate. This is a loss of less than 5 percent of voters moving away from the opposition parties. As such, the opposition’s core support remains significant in what continues to be a polarised polity.

Entrenched losing mentalities

Opposition support is now however more fragmented. Looking ahead, it is unlikely that a pact can be formed to prevent multi-cornered fights in the next election. It is also impossible that Pakatan Rakyat can be repaired. Humpty Dumpty has fallen off the wall. Pakatan is broken. Even if Hadi steps down or is pushed out as leader in the next PAS party election, old formulas and coalitions are not viable.

As such, the reality is that the multi-ethnic opposition will need to address how it can maximise its support among opposition supporters and more importantly cut into UMNO’s traditional base if it to even maintain its electoral position.

These are difficult tasks ahead, especially given the internal divisions in PKR and imbalances among the opposition partners. A new viable national opposition cannot achieve these tasks with a focus on issues and enemies of the past, a lacklustre campaign that relies non-competitively on resources rather than people’s priorities and battles that appear to be about themselves rather than for the people.

If the opposition is to move out of a losing mentality, it will need to address three key issues: a new leadership, a new narrative and revamped principles/parameters for cooperation and campaigning. The burden on the opposition to change is higher than ever, to reject practices and behaviour that has resulted in losses since 2013.

In contrast, the by-election victories show that for UMNO, the strategies of maintaining electoral support remain the same – a controlling leader, a reliance on resources, the use of control of electoral bodies (through movement of voters as occurred in both by-elections and the advantages of delineation) and the manipulation of race and religion.

UMNO continues to effectively capitalise on fear and insecurity, touting the idea that any viable national alternative besides UMNO will result in loss of place and position for its political base. This may appear like a winning strategy for elections, but it remains to be seen how long a campaign based on a mentality of losing actually moves the country forward.

In this climate of economic contraction, the politics of losing is now more dominant than ever. Negative politics and politicking are defining the national landscape. Disengagement and division are eroding the democratic quality of elections. The June by-elections show that these developments are not a winning formula for ordinary Malaysians.

BRIDGET WELSH is Professor of Political Science at Ipek University, Senior Research Associate at the Center for East Asian Democratic Studies of National Taiwan University, Senior Associate Fellow of The Habibie Center, and University Fellow of Charles Darwin University.

10 thoughts on “The June 2016 by-elections: The Opposition and Mahathir thoroughly plastered

  1. This rant,is oblivous to the fact that TUN M is not party/contract to any BN or Oppo,why plastered/
    After all,Oppo has never won a national poll for the pasts 50years
    BN won first time,will naturally maintaned an active machinery to serve,relegating Oppo as strangers

  2. The narrative is very simple, the Malays chose this, it’s part dependency, part apathy, part ignorance, part racist including religo. They chose not listen, to engage with others, to have to think and be strong.

    Whatever happens, they they can claim all for themselves they are responsible. They have no enemy or friends to claim success or failure.

  3. Grassroot activism starts from individuals is an idea first came to my conscious 14 years ago listening to Dr Welsh.
    Many smartest and brightest were there. I am honored to know so many who did do something concrete that I know we all could be proud of. Many tried and moved on. Yet, today, it is still Dr Welsh who could succinctly tells us something so dear to our hearts, even as she has to move on to “cari makan” elsewhere, as implied from her title.
    Dr Welsh deserves an honorary Datukship.

    = in this climate of economic contraction, the politics of losing is now more dominant than ever.

    No more katasayang. Time to consider #katalosing.

    Will the real Melayu please stand up?

  4. Will the real Melayu please stand up? katasayang
    The real Melayu not only stood up but have also packed their bags and moved elsewhere, thereby the saying Tak kan Melayu hilang di dunia. Melayu akan hilang di Malaysia if things continue as it is but the real Melayu will be out there competing against the best and making it on their own steam.
    There are many Melayus scattered around the globe and doing well inspite of being a minority. Even though being an immigrant they have not lost their Melayu identity, culture and customs.
    _________________
    That is the spirit, Semper Fi. We are not parasites. We have the mental tenacity and guts to take on all comers and tell those irresponsible and corrupt UMNO leaders to vamoose (a more polite word than I intended). I am in New York but you are far away. What is your number for me to call.–Din Merican

  5. Hardly any choice left for the Rakyat and their welfare whose hope and aspiration for a Clean, Free, Fair election, and a change for a Government that is Accountable, Competent, Governance and Transparent- had been shattered and DISTRACTED by personal agendas(greed for power and profits) oppositions in-fighting and (non) issues of little significance, often trivial, to the fundamental dire needs of the people and the country-Betrayal, overwhemely,….

    …. EXCEPT may be, the MPs and the leaders, regardless of their affiliations, race and faith, from the institutions, corporations across the aisle, across the nation, East and West, band together and courageously empowered themselves and people, to demand for CHANGE, moving forward to the 14 Ge.

    Continue to delve in SELF-DENIALS and Inaction is No longer an option.
    Time is not on our side.
    At stack, is the future of the lives and the welfare of our children and country,
    or
    be “PLASTERED” and SUFFOCATED by the personal (Mahathir,Najib and the likes) vendettas, greeds -for power and gains that are of little or no benefits to the larger population.

  6. @ semper fi
    Unfortunately, most of them that had gone oversea are “unreal” Melayu. But still, it only takes a few Real ones to take lead and stand up for their country,our country, our people, regardless. Malaysia is not lost.

  7. So long as Cash is King is not dethroned, court jesters will rule the day till kingdom come.

    As for Mahathir he has to go for broke now, if not, he may as well retire since his own son’s UMNO division is congratulating Najib.

    By going for broke means going back to real politics, join Amanah, get his whole family to do so, stand for election. But we know it won’t happen because he had said time and again, his fight against Najib is only to save UMNO as an inheritance for his children, principally Mukhriz. Anwar Ibrahim’s recent warning should be heeded, even if one may cynically detect some degrees of self-serving element.

    Of all people Mahathir should know that power is all-powerful, even if it resides in the hands of idiots, and worse in the hands of corrupt idiots.

  8. Kllau, you belong to the group of Melayu that are living in denial. Those out there are sweating for their own against the majority that would put your group to shame. Those real Melayu left are in jail.

  9. @Vic,

    I don’t belong to any group or party.
    But I do feel betrayed by MCA , Umno Baru and MIC,(recently by DAP and PKR, and ‘’PAS is not for all’’ but rationally and pragmatically should reinvent and re-instate ‘’PAS For All’’ ) which are supposed to stand up for the people’s and country’s wellbeing, against injustice, unequal distributions of wealth, opportunity and benefits, against the misconduct of the leaders of power-that-be, and what the independence of Malaya, later Malaysia, really means to me and to all Malaysians alike.

    Whether abroad or stay, each and every one of us who are concern citizens, had at one time or another had, consistently voiced or acted to help maintain and strengthen the integrity of the country and its delivery system, in the context of Westminster Parliamentary Democracy, which sadly, is withering away.

    I sympathize with those sent to jail fighting for just cause. But I rather fight with efforts, however small it may be, from the outside. Collectively, one consequence is we have already made MCA irrelevant, a race based party.. This should apply to all other race and religion based parties, not excluding those embedded with rogue culture of money politics, abuse of power and corruption

    The leaders have failed us, the country and the founding fathers, so far.

    I have chosen to stay, since May 12, 1969, on my return of study from abroad.

    Consistently, I had expressed my concern, is for the wellbeing of the country that I was born and bred and love –Malaysia.

    I have never stop aspiring and working with small little effort, that one day, in the near future. “I can’’ and for everyone else, Melayu or otherwise, ‘’feel and proudly identify myself (and themselves),above all, a Malaysian (Malaysians)’’ because ‘’to a foreigner I (we) feel like Malaysian, to a Malaysian, I (we were made by power-that-be) to feel like a Chinese, (Melayu or otherwise).

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