Malaysia–the best predictors of electoral outcomes


July 14, 2014

Malaysia–the best predictors of electoral outcomes

3 thoughts on “Malaysia–the best predictors of electoral outcomes

  1. The various political analysts undoubtedly have plenty of fun in coming up with their many analyses on the Malaysian elections but they all seem to forget or overlook the one and only influential factor – Anwar Ibrahim. Without this man the Opposition would have never smelled the successes they are now having in Selangor or even in Penang and the 2/3rds would have remained in the secure grasp of the BN. Deny and dismiss it as you will. Who else could have cemented disparate & diverse and diametrically-opposed groups together??? But Anwar’s so-called charisma is now waning and even the ‘key-stone’, PKR, of the PR loose coalition is shaky especially in Selangor – BN will return despite of and even with poor leadership. The real political indicator in the coming GE will be the fate of Anwar Ibrahim.
    _________________
    I would agree if you are referring to Anwar in 2008. Now, he is completely exhausted and has lost influence, given the fact he cannot manage his own party elections and is unable to handle Khalid who is a problem to Pakatan Rakyat. I am not surprised if Khalid quits Pakatan and accepts an offer from Najib to be a Cabinet minister at a very senior level.–Din Merican

  2. Hi there Aliefalfa,

    This is a very interesting and important point — that it is an individual — who holds Pakatan Rakyat (PR) together.

    Looking at in from an institutional perspective, do you think it is healthy, that PR’s viability should rest on an individual? Look forward to your views.
    _________________
    Greg,

    That is just bad management. A cadre system is better so that the political coalition is not vulnerable to attack by the opponents. Once they attacked Anwar and wore him down the coalition is in disarray and becomes weak. To make things worse, Pakatan Rakyat is a coalition of convenience to fight the 2008 GE. Anwar himself has lost credibility with his poor handling of Khalid and the party election. Recall his September 16 caper. Now,they can’t even form a shadow Cabinet. In Selangor, led by PKR’s Khalid, Pakatan has shown that they can’t get their act together because of Khalid’s toxic management. Promises are not kept. Arrogance and hubris have crept in. That’s my personal view. –Din Merican

  3. My take on Macro-History is different, as i subscribe to the ‘Swarm Theory’, popularized by Tolstoy. Basically, it’s core principle is that change is inevitable, unstoppable and are made by the ‘proletariat’ masses acting in concert like a ‘swarm of bees’, and not by any particular individual.

    Their Face or Leaders (or Queen, as some sceptics are won’t to disparage), may be in the forefront and most recognizable (and therefore, famous historically) characters and is often cited as the Cause Celebre’. But they are not. Anwar, is the Face, and perhaps the Trigger – but he just a small part of the Whole process.

    Mass movements are a result of the ‘Shift in Consciousness’ of many otherwise powerless individuals who are dissatisfied with the status quo and the old Establishment. It applies to all mass social movements, both at the national or transnational levels. It matters not one whit, about the Propaganda or Instruments of Power that the Elites-Nobility-Royalty wield. The conclusion is the same – there will be Change and Reformation regardless of the pain and misery at the expense of the Old, Tested, Tried and found to be wanting.

    Some revolutions are rapid, like outright Rebellions-Wars-Chaos (like the Christian Reformation, American War of Independence, French Revolution, Boxer Rebellion, even the World Wars and now, the FUBAR in MENA); but others may be slower, insipid but still irresistible.

    So tell me, would Malaysians truly allow the Powers-that-be, despite their manipulation and cynical displays of Racial Superiority and Religio-Fascist credentials?

    Bad Management or Lack thereof, has nothing to do with it, Dato. Perception of corruption, cronyism, elitism and abuse of power will be the force driving the Opposition.

    No, UMNOb and their vested interests will not rule for long in their present Hubris. Make sure that we are on the Right side of History, even as a mote (dust particle) because not all is what it seems.

    “Liberte’, egalite’, fratenite’!”. Remember that, for the Time is always Now.

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