Najib disputes survey findings of UMCEDEL


April 28, 2013

Najib disputes survey findings of UMCEDEL

by Lu Wei Hoong@http://www.malaysiakini.com

BN chairperson Najib Abdul Razak has rubbished a survey conducted by a department within Universiti Malaya which claimed that he is four points behind PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim.

Survey finding of UMCedel

“I don’t agree with the poll. We have our own poll. My poll indicates that we are ahead,” he said. He said this at a press conference after attending a luncheon involving 1,000 people in Rawang, Selangor.He was referring to the UM’s Centre for Democracy and Elections’ (Umcedel) recent survey where 43 percent of respondents believed that Anwar was to be qualified to be prime minister, compared to 39 percent saying the same for Najib.

Some academics have questioned the survey results, claiming that the sample size of 1,407 was too small and that Pakatan Rakyat may have manipulated the survey results.

Sabotage

Najib latestNajib added that he was confident that BN will win with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, provided that BN is not subject to internal sabotage.

“But I have to remind that the internal problem must be resolved or else it may threaten our performance (in the general election).If we are united and working hard, there is no reason why we can’t get good result,” he said.

Asked on the BN’s performance in the Pakatan Rakyat states, Najib admitted it is an uphill battle. “We know that it is not easy to change the state government but our machinery is in high spirit and we will do our best to achieve our objectives,” he added.

Johor

Regarding his appearance with his lieutenant Muhyiddin Yassin in Johor tomorrow, Najib dismissed that it is an indication that BN was in a precarious position there.

“No. We know that Johor is a battlefield as DAP leaders have chosen it (as a frontline state). We are not only concentrating on Johor. We will travel to every state… to achieve an overall victory.”

18 thoughts on “Najib disputes survey findings of UMCEDEL

  1. Why worry about the poll results which are merely extrapolation of a smaller sample to predict a more general outcome that may not be true. Polling is a relatively new phenomenon in Malaysia and its accuracy may be in doubt. It’s only a week away from the real results – just be patient waiting.

  2. UMCEDEL probably has the most stringent pollster methodology than other local institutions. Their margin of error is stated as 2.65% which is average. However since this survey was done only in the Peninsula, it does not reflect the margin that UMNO is expected to win, which will be considerably more than these numbers show. The good Prof might have to look for a job soon, unless his figures prove true. A kangkung he has not proven to be, unlike many of his peers.

    The worrying thing to UMNO is that it reveals that it is no longer the sacred temple, lacks intellectual honesty, depth of purpose and is rapidly putrefying. The killer blow is that Jibs, the jaguh and bomoh kampung, self proclaimed or otherwise, is definitely a dead-duck. Even to his own coterie of sycophants. He has lost the war.

    Anwar has triumphed, despite his trials and tribulations. Whether he gets to occupy Putrajaya is moot, as he has proven to have fought the good fight and finished the race in good grace. Peace be with him always.

    Mass BR1Ms cannot deflect the anger and hatred for the UMNO elites. Only brimful hubris allows Jibs to say that the Premier University researchers are utter rubbish. Is that why UKM is now officially judged the Pr1me Institution? Good grief! (Not meaning any disrespect to graduates from there).

  3. Dear Father…. please help protect the careers and jobs of the pollster working for UMCEDEL in University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur as they had just published what their masters do not desire. Grant them the peace of mind and ensure that the cruel and evil people do not dismiss them from their jobs… Thank you, Lord, Amen!

  4. Apparently there is a Bernama report quoting a UTM “geostrategist Prof Azmi Hassan, ” who claims that the poll sample is “too small” and that the study cannot “represent the people’s aspirations” as its 1,407 sample size is not sufficient to represent the nation’s 28 million population and the more than 13 million voters.

    In the United States, there are 300 million people and 200 million voters, and the typical poll sample size is just 1,000 people — even smaller. So much for this professor’s alleged expertise on polling.

  5. The state of panic in BN is so high that even RPK is very actively promoting BN by resorting to mostly bad news about Pakatan on his website, most of which are from junk media like The Star.

    Pretty soon, Najib is going to agree to RPK’s price for expose against Anwar and Pakatan. RPK is going to be a fantastically rich man.

    Now, let’s see which other turncoat will surface in the next few days.

  6. Mr PM instruct the Police and MACC to investigate these corrupt UM Researshers. They must have been paid by Pakatan

  7. 1. Here’s how you calculate the sample size for a survey.

    http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

    2. In Malaysia, we have the spectacle of pro-kleptocratic regime professors in public universities claiming that a sample size of 1,000 is too small to predict support for the 1PM !

    Either it is a case of “bodoh-sombong” or outright intellectual dishonesty.

    3. The robustness of the survey results depend on random sampling and
    honesty of respondents in answering the question.

  8. I never get this ‘denying the obvious’ actions by UMNO/BN especially by supposedly top leaders. It only make them look like liars. People talking about whether PR has enough, not whether they have the majority vote..

  9. What a coincidence. Malaysia GE 13 is May 05, the day is known as Cinco De Mayo. Significance “It originated with Mexican-American communities in the American West as a way to commemorate the cause of freedom and democracy” Wikipedia.

    The date is significant as May 05 will see Freedom and Democracy being bestowed and returned to the citizens of Malaysia.

  10. najib is hinting that the polling should include extraordinary measure umno-bn has taken to win the election. as already confirmed by others, the sample size is around 1000. if it is good for FRG with 83mio people then it should be good for Malaysia too.

  11. According to some blogs and on-line news portals, the kangkung professors, professing to be the national council of professors Malaysia (MKN) are huddled together trying to figure the proper response the UMCEDEL’s bombshell. Is that a rumor or what? Resistance is futile.. Might as well tapau-bungkus, while they are at it.

    The perception war has been won, even if the establishment refuses to go away. That’s the problem when a Bangsat-One tries to play presidential politics – when in actual fact he’s not a very bright chap. His advisers were too focused on hybridizing Tidak-Pa Malaysian values with cynical materialistic-corruption methodology.

  12. CLF,
    Najib will use this tactics to conduct his own poll. Of course, his one is not reputable. What say you BN supporter

  13. Has anybody read the actual report?

    Click to access UMCEDEL-MEDIA.pdf

    1,407 is indeed adequate to keep the sample error down – for most purposes, anything over 500 will do.

    But there is such a thing as sample bias and selection bias. Just conducting a random sample isn’t enough, if the sampling isn’t properly handled. Just check the demographic characteristics of the respondents (slide pg 8):

    Chinese 53%, Malay 37%
    University degree 49%, SPM/STPM 33%
    21-30 yrs old 51%, 31-60 37%

    Seriously – this is representative of the voting population? What did they do, pop over to Bangsar Village on a Saturday night?

  14. in 2008 some 7.5 mio voters turned out to vote.
    according to our mega professors of umno-bn descent the sample size has to be at least 7.5 mio to predict the outcome of the GE13 precisely. the USofA should also adopt this method to become the Best ever democracy in the world.

  15. If worried about the demographic characteristics of the respondents in the random sample, then “stratified sampling” can be done instead.

    The point is that the pro-regime professor from the public university is talking nonsense and brings disrepute to Malaysian academia when either (1) he/she is ignorant about sample size in survey research or (2) being intellectually dishonest.

    We see the similar spectacle of pro-regime professors from UMP and other public universities declaring that the wastes from the Lynas plant are “safe”.

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