January 21, 2013
GE-13: 2/3rd Majority in Parliament is an uphill battle for UMNO-BN
It will be “impossible” for the BN to get a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the next general election – and this could lead to BN Head and Premier Najib Abdul Razak’s resignation, according to a study.
The Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) cited previous electoral records and current developments in arriving at this conclusion in its study.
Umcedel Director Mohammad Redzuan Othman (left) told Malay daily Sinar Harian that the BN would only maintain the status quo in the 13th general election “unless there are extraordinary things that we don’t see such – as phantom voters – which we as researchers cannot study”
“In the past general election, BN only garnered 47 percent of the popular vote in the Peninsula, while Pakatan Rakyat won 49 percent. Nationwide, the BN only received 50.2 percent support,” he was quoted as saying.
“Former Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s (right) popularity was over 70 percent when he entered the (2008) general election but Najib’s popularity now is only 58 percent. So, it will be impossible for Najib to do better than Abdullah.”
Another factor is that Najib is the only Premier who will be calling a general election without a redelineation exercise.
“UMNO obtained the majority of its seats due to redelineation, not votes. This was proven when Abdullah obtained 64 percent of the popular vote but won 90 percent of the Parliamentary seats (in 2004)”, Redzuan said.
He noted that the convention in UMNO is for a Prime Minister to resign, should he fail to lead the BN to a two-thirds majority in the general election.“It had happened to the first Prime Minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, and to Abdullah. The same thing will happen to Najib …”
Merdeka Centre Executive Director Ibrahim Suffian, who shared this view, revealed that a survey by the independent pollster has similarly shown that it will be an uphill battle for BN to get a two-thirds majority this time around.