GE-13: 2/3rd Majority in Parliament is an uphill battle for UMNO-BN

January 21, 2013

GE-13: 2/3rd Majority in Parliament is an uphill battle for UMNO-BN


It will be “impossible” for the BN to get a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the next general election – and this could lead to BN Head and Premier Najib Abdul Razak’s resignation, according to a study.

NONEThe Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel) cited previous electoral records and current developments in arriving at this conclusion in its study.

Umcedel Director Mohammad Redzuan Othman (left) told Malay daily Sinar Harian that the BN would only maintain the status quo in the 13th general election “unless there are extraordinary things that we don’t see such – as phantom voters – which we as researchers cannot study”

“In the past general election, BN only garnered 47 percent of the popular vote in the Peninsula, while Pakatan Rakyat won 49 percent. Nationwide, the BN only received 50.2 percent support,” he was quoted as saying.

pak lah istana negara meet agung on final day 020409 01“Former Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s (right) popularity was over 70 percent when he entered the (2008) general election but Najib’s popularity now is only 58 percent. So, it will be impossible for Najib to do better than Abdullah.”

Another factor is that Najib is the only Premier who will be calling a general election without a redelineation exercise.

“UMNO obtained the majority of its seats due to redelineation, not votes. This was proven when Abdullah obtained 64 percent of the popular vote but won 90 percent of the Parliamentary seats (in 2004)”, Redzuan said.

Najib at MIC ConventionHe noted that the convention in UMNO is for a Prime Minister to resign, should he fail to lead the BN to a two-thirds majority in the general election.“It had happened to the first Prime Minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, and to Abdullah. The same thing will happen to Najib …”

Merdeka Centre Executive Director Ibrahim Suffian, who shared this view, revealed that a survey by the independent pollster has similarly shown that it will be an uphill battle for BN to get a two-thirds majority this time around.

16 thoughts on “GE-13: 2/3rd Majority in Parliament is an uphill battle for UMNO-BN

  1. The Malaysian voters want a viable two party system– one with a strong government and an effective opposition. In fact, there is no need for a 2/3rd majority to get things done, if one abandons the idea of making constitutional changes or pushing through controversial programmes. A responsible opposition can vote in favour of any government programme which they see as benefiting the people. Good government and responsible opposition is a must for Malaysia.

    Of course Mahathir wants Najib to fail since he has other motives and schemes in mind, that is, those that will protect his legacy and personal interest. Because the former Prime Minister has become a nuisance factor and stumbling block to Najib’s reform initiatives and 1Malaysia, there is a strong likelihood that voters will sympathise with the Prime Minister and give him the votes he needs to upstage Badawi (in 2008). The UM analysis says that UMNO-BN will win GE-13. Redzuan’s job at UM is safe.–Din Merican

  2. The study they did not take into account the phantom voters. But we can anticipate to see many voters as you could see in this video.
    Malaysia boleh Mahathir’s version.

  3. Under the current circumstances there is no way for UMNO/BN to get a 2/3rd in the GE13. If it has been an UMNO’s tradition for its President to resign (not without some pressure from rivals) after failing to get the 2/3rd, then these will be the last few months for Najib to be at the helm. UMNO/BN will be very lucky indeed if it can improve its present majority in the parliament. For it to regain any of the PR-controlled states will need a great effort coupled with lots of luck. All the PR needs to do now is to avoid any appearances of internal disagreement among themselves in order not to reduce the voters’ confidence in them.

  4. A two party system is a must, for we need a viable alternative to be voted in should the ruling party fails to perform during the term they are elected.

    A simple majority is a must, for we don’t want abuse of power by the ruling party to simply amend the constitution at their whims and fancies.

    A Pakatan Rakyat victory in GE13 is a must, for we badly need to put the country back on the right track.

    A loss for UMNO/BN in GE13 is a must, for we want UMNO/BN to rebuild itself to become a party that truly champion the rakyat’s cause and offer us two credible choices for subsequent GEs.

  5. The UM analysis says that UMNO-BN will win GE-13. Redzuan’s job at UM is safe.–Din Merican

    This UM Director should be suspended for being one sided in his prediction, going by Bank Islam’s practice. But I think he will be promoted instead.

  6. hahahaha, this fella is smart. He offends nobody including Mahathir himself.Anyway, why sympathise with najib? no need to sympathise with any UMNO folks…..Time to obliterate them till kingdom comes

  7. Only people who are capable, hardworking, bold and scrupulously HONEST being allowed to serve in positions of responsibility. People without INTEGRITY, HONESTY and MORALITY should be prevented and barred from holding public office…Malaysian should not vote for the sake of voting..We have to make the RIGHT CHOICE. We MUST choose the RIGHT PEOPLE to lead and manage the Country..We don’t need corrupted, irresponsible, incompetent LEADERS…” Fish ROTS not from the tail or body but from the HEAD. “

  8. Tok Din – absolute right.

    Redzuan is cautious. However he can check for phantom members like the exercise of circa 1986. Then they match deceased names and IC numbers obtained from cemeteries instead of registrar of death/birth. Seems that time a BN party had external audit downloaded membership list for audit and then silent.

    Now, these list must have grown too long and more IC numbers got recycled so there is a good dirt of a chance for BN to win; dead babies then are now voting age. Politics is about winning votes; not intellectual debates. Now how the EC can verify electoral rolls when all IC are resurrected and valid.

    But the one campaigning these days for his own limelight is less of Ajib and more of Atir. for come back reasons. Atir has the capability to right most wrongs. He knows the sentiments of mega deals. Since he has gold flowing out of his ears, if he make his manifesto list to put right those deals and reverse money back to the systems for all ra’ayat to benefit, he can swing back many votes. He can take those money to our creator so might as well make manifest his own renaissance. Not only Malays will love him for that but all Malaysians for what Malaysians want is justice for their next generation. He ALONE is quite capable of righting most that we see wrong.

    But would he?
    The short answer to your Q is that he would if it serves his interest, secures his place in history (minus the notoriety) and ensures his son Mukkhriz’s political future as worthy successor to his dynasty. I never underestimate what he can accomplish even at this age (85 years).–Din Merican

  9. Hope springs eternal. And i hope the BN’ers and their faithful will see through the message by this outfit, and something that all thinking Malaysians know, that the only way the BN can win is by moving goal posts and the army of new citizens who will line up at the ballot booths.

  10. This is what happen to a man who only knows to live by his swords. To Mahathir, it’s dog eats dog world. That’s why I say it’s time for BN to be obliterated/eradicated/tui lam or whatever. Of course, legitimate way la

  11. The only way to make this country ‘work’ at nation building is to Center the Otak. It doesn’t matter whether we are pro this or that. A 2 party system when mature, will more often than not, center the otak. But the problem is when, where and how to locate the Otak in the first place!

    Democracy is always in a state of near chaos – that’s where things can change for the better. What is happening now, is a transitional period of adolescent angst – when anatomy changes, where body hair sprouts in previously bald spots, acne zits proliferate and the physiology/mental faculties undergo metamorphosis. It’s a dangerous period and rage seems to be the the norm. Have you ever tried reasoning (besides the horrific method of Listenx11) with an enraged, self conflicted teenager? I’m sure you have, otherwise you’d be an Octo..

    The pessimist in me, says that UMNO will continue, but be dramatically damaged. They will have almost no accessories (er Lap dogs..) to their criminality. The even more pessimistic part of me, says that Sabah and Sarawak may just float away, because the center takde otak. These fellas are slow to anger, but their ancestors were headhunters until quite recently.

    The optimistic part of me hopes that PR wins and keep at least part of their promises – without PKR infighting and holdover BN mentality; DAP chauvinistic yodeling and self-pride and PAS insistence of form/piety sans substance.

    I need more toilet paper..

  12. Again Tok Din, I concur with you.

    Long ago, he said the country needed surgery. Together with his fellow houseman we became the operating theater that produced Frankenstein. Now we need a real doctor. So if he has the means to manifest a renaissance, then his name goes into history but it would be very difficult for a rich man to give up his gold than for a camel to go through the eye of a needle.

    Yes, we never underestimate his center-staging the final 10m dash for his capability can surprise us all.

  13. I get very angry watching that video outside a Sabah Polling station – I just wonder why Sabahans can still be so calm – you see the open market in Kota Kinabalu overwhelmed by traders from Philippines and Indonesia… and the only dialect you hear in Karamunsing Complex is Tagalog… and yet those bloody politicians like Kinabatangan and Kota Belud can only think of nothing but themselves… get rid of all these people once and for all lah….

  14. BTW the illegal immigrants given the blue IC with rights to vote did not only affect Sabah State Government, these people are also eligible to vote in parliamentary elections for the Malaysian parliament since 1993…. oh Mahathir, look what have you done, now!

  15. Watchout….this guy wannabe the mahal mahaguru maharajah mamasan ma !
    we are simply parading in his aquarium in our birthday suits.

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