The Economist Corporate Network: Barisan Nasional back in power with a smaller majority


August 29, 2012

Barisan Nasional back in power with a smaller majority, says The Economist Corporate Network

The Barisan Nasional (BN) will be returned to power in the next general election albeit with a smaller majority, the Economist Corporate Network ― the global briefing service for business executives of the international magazine ― has predicted.

“Our view is that BN will come back to power with their majority slightly reduced.The opposition may win more seats, but there will be no change in government,’’ Justin Wood, the network’s Director for Southeast Asia, told reporters today in his presentation, “Weak World, Strong Malaysia”, which addressed foreign investor concerns.

In his briefing, Wood pointed out that one key issue raised by most investors was the impact of the next elections.  “[For] investors, it is a question mark of what will happen to the reform programmes if there is a change in government. What if BN comes back with a smaller majority?What if there’s a change in government? What does this all mean to Malaysia?” he added, referring to the Government’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and Government Transformation Programme (GTP).

But Wood suggested that the upcoming election result will limit Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s ability to implement necessary economic policies.

“Our view is that it is more than likely that the prime minister will remain in office, albeit with a slightly undermined ability to push through reforms [via] majority,” he added.

Najib has already been forced to back down on his merit-based reforms — necessary to propel the economy toward his goal of making Malaysia a high-income nation come 2020 — following resistance from hawks within his own UMNO as well as Malay rights group such as PERKASA.

Despite earlier pledges to dismantle the decades-old affirmative action policies favouring the Bumiputras, Najib instead went on to introduce the Teraju agency to further promote the community’s participation in the economy.

His administration was also forced to loosen up requirements for contractors bidding for mega-project works, after Malay firms complained of being left out by lucrative infrastructure contracts for the upcoming Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit (MRT).

A general election must be called by April 2013, when the current BN administration’s mandate will expire. Najib had been expected to call for an early general election in June but was believed to have been forced to abandon the plan following the BERSIH rally in April and scandals linked to members of his government.

BN suffered its worst electoral performance in 2008, when it lost its traditional parliamentary supermajority and five states — Penang, Selangor, Kelantan, Kedah, and Perak — to the then-fledgling Opposition pact of Pakatan Rakyat. It later regained control of Perak following several lawmaker defections.

27 thoughts on “The Economist Corporate Network: Barisan Nasional back in power with a smaller majority

  1. Najib wants to win big. Smaller majority means UMNO will replace him like they did in 2008 after GE-12 with Badawi. Right now, it looks like the election it could go either way.

    The Leader of the Opposition is very confident. Anwar is already saying that he will not live in Seri Perdana, Putrajaya when (not if) he becomes Prime Minister. That’s arrogance, Anwar wants to be Prime Minister and whatever it takes via promises to the rakyat , he will do it. Such an obsession is not magnificent.

    Najib, on the other hand, thinks it is his birthright to occupy the seat of government as Prime Minister. He spends money like that there is no tomorrow to get votes and he will buy opposition members, if necessary. Both are not good leaders. We have to look beyond these flawed characters.

  2. Predictably predictable, Mr Wood.
    Just like Freudians who determine anything that is longer than wider must be a penis. In my humble opinion, it’ll be ‘hung’.

    You guys/gals might also wanna prophesy, predetermine and do informed ‘jampis’. Whoever does it correctly will face the fake Mayan Apocalypse orgasmically.

  3. “..The Barisan Nasional (BN) will be returned to power in the next general election albeit with a smaller majority, the Economist Corporate Network ― the global briefing service for business executives of the international magazine ― has predicted…”

    Didn’t I tell you guys many times before. The BORN-LOSERs-Malaysian Voters especially the Malays, WILL vote back this crony-infested corrupt UMNO-led regime into power AGAIN.

    The Malays will never get out of their racial insecurity, especially now with Islam thrown into the mix. Before it is the Malay race that was in danger, ” Melayu akan hilang didunia..” .. now the pariah UMNO Malay leaders are telling the Malay voters, educated ones especially, that their RELIGION might also ” akan hilang didunia” if they vote PAS, DAP and PKR. And if Pakatan gets into Putrajaya, the streets of Kuala Lumpur and other cities will be flooded with gays and lesbians….including RAPISTS AND PAEDOPHILES, thanks to Appeals Court President Md Raus Sharif and Judge Sitarun Nisa Abdul Aziz. (read their decisions for setting free the two convicted rapists of 12 and 13 year old girls).

    And the educated Malays actually believe this crap. It is not that they are dumb, it is that they cannot come out of their false sense of insecurity. The Chinese and Indians are not only the bogeymen, it is the non-UMNO Malays who will help the Chriistians to Christianise Malaysia, convert Malays to become Muslims and possibly make Christianity the offiical religion of Malaysia. If you don;t believe, read Utusan Malaysia, the only paper these born-losers Malay voters will get their news from.

    Now, with this prediction, those spineless Sabahans and Sarawakians will crawl back into their skins after all the bravado about standing for their native rights, and vote back the same corrupt UMNO-BN govt into power.

    Eat your heart out, all of you born-losers Malaysian voters.

    I suggest those of you who wanted Pakatan to win government, should rush to the nearest Australian, NZ, UK, US or Canadian embassy to get and fill out their emigration forms.

    But, before that, get your children a place to study there first, and open up a bank account overseas and send all your life savings there. If you have not done so, you are an idiot. All the MCA towkays and Indian carpet sellers and the UMNOPutras have already got offshore accounts and investments some 10 years ago. And most have got their Permanent Residency overseas as contigency. They don’t care two hoots whether Malaysia is in debt or not, or if the country is facing financial crisis… they have already set themselves and their children up for life overseas.

    The smartest people today on this blog are Kathy, Mr Bean and Reeperbahn. They are having a good laugh at all of you born-losers Malaysian voters.

    So, you folks might as well join in the chorus and shout, Long Live UMNO. Long Live Najib and Rosmah.

  4. correction
    “..who will help the Christians to Christianise Malaysia, convert Malays to become CHRISTIANS and possibly make Christianity the official religion of Malaysia.

  5. Even Anwar and Datuk Ambiga knew that they are not getting through to the born-losers Malaysian voters.

    Anwar said if Pakatan loses, which is another way of admitting it will lose, he will go to become an academician, continuing where he left off, talking with his head in the clouds about how Islam is relevant in a western democracy. Datuk Ambiga is going to quit Bersih after the next GE. These are tell-tale signs.

    PAS even up to day, is still talking and running in circles about hudud. PAS is living in a virtual world on hudud. Yes, No,Maybe, If, But, Applies here not there, then applies there but not here… PAS leaders got screwed by the Kutty Supremo and Utusan Malaysia on hudud. Currently, their position on hudud is not tenable with their muslim grassroots and with their non-muslim supporters.

    At this rate, PAS is basically caught in a twilight zone…. living in a make-believe and dream world about hudud. They know they CANNOT enforce hudud law if they win govt under Pakatan, because PR will never get a two third majority in the next 2-4 general elections if they ever win Putrajaya. PAS leaders even know they really don’t believe what they say. They cannot even articulate in one voice, let alone articulate clearly on their practical stand on hudud besides their ridiculous rhetoric in public on it. I wonder who are they HOODWINKING and bullshitting about on what they can do with hudud laws??

    As for the nonMuslims (mainly Chinese) PAS Supporters Club members, just disband yourself and go back to your usual business and look after your family. You are wasting your time… better spend with your family because PAS leaders are just making a fool of themselves on the hudud issue. PAS leaders cannot even get their act together. They don’t even have the courage to remove that Pro-UMNO trojan horse Nasharuddin Mat Isa from their midst, despite him thumbing his nose at PAS by having quality time with Najib in Mekah and coming back to challege PAS leaders on hudud.

    As for PKR… it is still licking its wounds from all the frogging scandals.

    As for DAP, it better spend its time to increase state seats on its own and hold on to Penang… and spend less time worrying about hudud and the nonsense going on in PAS. Karpal Singh should just shut up on hudud and let PAS leaders kill themselves on the hudud issue with UMNO.

    By the way, which is the best international school in KL? Need to plan ahead.

  6. You must remember these articles are read by people who thinks they own the country or groupings or the world.

    Geranimo,
    Tell us something we don’t know. Lky said before when we go into battle, we make sure that we must win. We win all if have to. There is no such thing in allowing oppos to gain foothold.

    Clf,
    Hung parliament? That’d be a disaster to pakatan & Malaysia as a whole. Since when you see any government in the past from the oppos ever run the state with less than 50%. Even at 3 seat majority, pakatan still got problem in keeping perak. So go figure.
    Frank,
    Rpk mentioned that it’s the stupid yindians & Chinese that kept bn alive for 55 years. Not melayu. Care to rebut.
    Why go so far? Just cross the causeway into Singapore. Lee hsien loong will welcome you guys with open arms & legs

    Rakyat Malaysia,
    It’s a known fact. That’s why I say hung parliament is a disaster. Hence I hope voters use their blain carefully. So say phua chu kang.

  7. Recalling the situation in the Sabah state election 1985, PBS won with a slim majority. Majority of berjaya folks especially berjaya lost their seats. Haris salleh is no Shirley William (know who she’s. Google).
    Haris salleh persuaded mustapha to have a coalition government (isa mentari style). Even though on paper, the combined seats of usno & berjaya was less than 50%. Harris reckoned that with 6 nominated seats, they can form the government. Mahathir may seem to agree with the setup. The rest is history with pairin waiting at the gate till 11am from midnight. Thank god that musa hitam came to senses to let pairin form the government. Then came bombing in Kota Kinabalu & defection of 3 PBS into usno. That sparked the subsequent state election in 1986

  8. Rpk mentioned that it’s the stupid yindians & Chinese that kept bn alive for 55 years. Not melayu. – Looes74

    RPK is a wash-out. He likes to hear his own voice. By the way, he is a faction-writer ie he mixes facts and fiction in all his so-called expose and articles.

    Not true, the only time the nonMalays kept BN alive was in the 2000 election and the 2008 election (the spineless Sabahans and Sarawakians who talk big but when the chips are down or when called to be counted, they crawled under the table and vote the corrupt UMNO-BN back into power at each GE.

    All the seats are restructured after Tun Razak took over as PM to make sure that Parliament will have Malay majority. It is configured such that the number of seats will have majority Malay voters. Where there are non Malay population, the seats are kept huge, and I mean really huge. Compare number of voters in Putrajaya with 98% population of Malays, or any of the seats in the KL and Ipoh urban areas with non Malay majority.

    The Chinese and Indians vote only is meaningful to kick out BN if the Malay vote is split between UMNO and PKR/PAS.

    Right now, the rural Malay votes are still in UMNO’s favour. Last year, PAS was on the ascendency, but after being spooked by Kutty Supremo and Utusan Malaysia on hudud, PAS is having CREDIBILITY PROBLEM with both its conservative muslim grassroots and with its non muslim supporters.

    Here lies PAS problem, it needs nonmuslims votes win the urban seats because the Malay vote is insufficent, In almost equal Malay/nonMalay population seats, PAS still need nonMalay votes to offset the Malay votes for UMNO.

    So, this hudud issue is a dilemma for PAS. It has to satisfy the religious sentiments of its conservative base and at the same time win nonMalay votes to win Govt.

    At one stage last year, I thought PAS got the formula right and the rhetoric right. Now it seems they lost the plot and lost the message after they got bamboozled by Kutty Supremo, Utusann Malaysia and suprise-surprise, even by that pea-brain “I am Malay first, Malaysian second” DPM.

    On this trend, PAS will be spiralling downwards in popularity and in winning votes both from its conservative base, but more from the liberal Malays and the nonMalay votes.

    Unfortunate, but that is the hard truth for PAS.

  9. A hung ‘wooden’ projection la, not a hung Parliament.. I’m sure you know what to do with these. In Mampusia, we have outright bribery, corruption and lust for immediate endowment vs wishful thinking, delayed gratification and faith in the future. Whoever said longer is better?

    Pakatan, if and when they win may turn up to be ‘hangat-hangat tahi ayam’, unless they rally under a credible leader – who will not be a China-pek or ah Moi. Guess who would that be, even if the component he leads is a semipermeable BN clone? All predictions are off the table due to osmotic pressure; and i’d rather watch as the clowns try to out-clown each other. Any other questions?

  10. Recalling the situation in the Sabah state election-Looes74

    The less you mention about Sabah and Sarawak political leaders, the better.

    History shows they all got FROG-GENES.

    That is the most polite way to say, they cannot be trusted as a trust-worthy member of a fraternity, or as a team player. They will sell their heritage and their family heirlooms to strangers to satisfy their greed. Look what happened to the rich natural resources of Sabah and Sarawak. Who did they allow to rape all their natural resources and left Sabah and Sarawak among the poorest states in the country. You cannot actually blame Kuala Lumpur. The blame goes to their spineless and greedy politicians allowed to govern Sabah and Sarawak since 1963.

    Useless to mention Sabahans and Sarawakians unless they can show that they are “jantan” enough to stand up to the UMNO-regime in Kuala Lumpur in the GE.

  11. The only people who have the balls to square of with the corrupt UMNO regime are the Kelantanese Malays, who did not buy into the bribery of UMNO for more than a decade.

    And their close kinship with their fellow NONMalay Kelantanese is akin to Brotherhood, a sense of belonging which nonMalays in other states will never experience with their Malay counterparts. But then they are a totally different breed of Malays from the rest of Malays in Malaysia.They even have their own unique Malay dialect, to boot.

    Kelantanese Malays are disciplined in more ways than one and willing to face economic adversity for a principle. they hold on to. Whether one agrees with them or not in what they stand for , that is not the point.

    Sabahans and Sarawakians should make more study tour visits to Kelantan to learn more about how to be a “jantan” when facing the onslaught of the corrupt regime of UMNO-BN.

  12. Economist Corporate Network is wrong this time,I believe that an alternative government will be formed with a small majority.- Jack

    My mum has a favourite saying for such wishful thinking: Take another extra pillow and dream on.

  13. Frank,
    please note that much wishful thinking became truth recently,the collapse of USSR,the chaing in Communist china,the Arab spring,etc
    We would know every soon,probably within 2012.

    • Jack, take another extra pillow still.

      In fact husin might be right. The EC is dragging its feet on phantom voters and the postal votes will make sure UMNO-BN get two third majority. Suddenly born losers Malaysians wake up the day after election, MCA got back all the seats they lost in 2008 and MIC got all,it’s seats back.

      Defeated PAS candidates will go for the haj to find out why Allah forsaken them despite willing to change the Constitution to implement HIS Law, the hudud.

      And MCA will bring all the china dolls and the Kanton Pop singers to have an orgy of a time to celebrate.

    • Frank,
      I agree that all you have written are indeed the intentions and planning of the power that be,but I have the feeling that this time it is different,as we wait it out.

  14. Interesting to read all the views & opinions on the possible outcome of the next general election but I wouldn’t be surprised if all predictions are later proven wrong resulting in BN getting an enhanced majority approaching a 2/3 in the Parliament.

  15. 2/3 rds BN majority, is as wishful thinking as PR winning the GE outright.
    ‘Informed intelligence’, at the moment gives it 98-120 for UMNO-BN. How informed? Agak-agak. The margin of error is equivalent to Chaos Theory spouted by the local snake-oil merchant from Bangladesh.

    The crucial factor is not Jibs, who lacks the X-factor, besides his scandals. The main factor to my mind is the sheer inability of the Opposition to avoid potential minefields and punji traps set by UMNO guerrillas.

    Should UMNO win, we’d end up with a head-honcho who has the gemological transparency and brilliance of a green pea or four angled bean. So, I’ll still prefer the swirling uncertainty, hormonal instability and acne-ridden juvenile PR. Let BN lie fallow and sort their Oedipus/Electra complexes away from public glare. More likely, they will be no more – senescence with extreme prejudice.

  16. C.L. Familiaris ,

    the “informed intelligence” did not account for the phantome voters and postal votes going to those constituencies at midnight before the final count where UMNO-BN are losing or too close too call. These soc-called “intelligence” where these ghost-voters will fly to on election night. Only the EC chaps will know where the postal votes and phantom votes will go to.

    So, the two-third majority is not only possible, but probably and not only probably, but will most likely to happen.

    The Opposition can protest till the cows come home or till they land themselves in Kamunting or Sg Buloh, If they protest in the streets, the tear gas and the water cannons will make sure they stay at home.

    Will not happen? Why not, Operasi Lallang happened and the Bersih 3,0 brutality by the riot squat happened.

    Now, can somebody tell me how to get to the Canadian High Commission please.

  17. We can only hope, Frank.

    I think the sudden appearance of unaccounted ballot boxes will no longer be so easy, especially in the front-line and marginal states/seats. That is what happened in Sibu by-election, but BN still lost despite padding some 2+k votes. EC functionaries will be watched, carefully. In case anyone thinks the civil service is a shoe-in for BN, think again. The lower and mid rankers are less beholden to the fascist doctrines of the elite. The demographics of new voters have shifted to the youth, and these are not so easily manipulated. The rabid Mat Rempits are still around, but politics of fear and intimidation is no longer as damning. The BN Wanita wings who have always been the hardest working are festering with internal revolts. Pork barrel and “Lu tolong.., gua tolong” politics are fast reaching their expiry dates.

    I think there will be a tremendous change in voting habits, if PR play their cards right and avoid unnecessary FUBARs. Besides the constant harassment of BN peccadilloes, they have to assert their policies forcefully and play ‘positive’ politics.

    You are right in focusing on the East Malaysian states, ‘cuz that’s where the soft underbelly of the Opposition is. But it must be said that the Opposition now also has financial clout and their own corp of die hard supporters and ‘extremists’.

  18. Jack,
    Yes, we can only hope things will go our way. The good will triumph over evil but then again anything can happen. I believe you are from Chinese ed wanna see the end of umno. The endless discrimination imposed on Chinese ed schools. Yup, plenty of surprises lately. The world is changing. For better or worse.
    Guys & gals,
    Pakatan needs to play their games by projecting the right policies & manifesto to the public. Furthermore, pakatan component parties must prove to the world that they are all equal partners not one taikor party name pkr assuming the role of umno. Furthermore, we should gun down lotsa loose cannons especially those from pkr who refuses tag along pakatan lines.
    Perhaps, anwar should step aside to allow a better fella to take over

  19. Pakatan needs to play their games by projecting the right policies & manifesto to the public.- looes74

    They can’t… Pakatan is a coalition of ragtag parties. They are only good on their own. They see their coalition partners in terms of their own agenda ONLY. They only talk about compromise, but they won’t compromise. PAS will go on with its hudud,,, DAP will keep on shutting down hudud and PKR will be sitting on the fence on hudud depending which way the wind blows.

    There is NO commonality of policies. The only common goal is to win Govt.. so they will lie and lie to each other… Once they win govt, all bets are off and the gloves are off and then we will have a worse dysfunctional govt.

    If they cannot agree on a single platform like hudud while in Opposition, how could they govern the country with so many policy fronts to tackle.

    Stay back in UK….. forget about Pakatan winning Putrajaya with all the nonsense the PAS and DAP leaders are crapping constantly.

    Meanwhile in Penang, PKR is badmouthing DAP and Lim Guan Eng and soon we will hear DAP badmouthing about Anwar and PKR.

    See what I mean, Pakatan Rakyat is a rag tag party, got together only for a one night stand.

    Need to check out on the New Zealand High Commission’s intake of immigrants for 2013..

  20. No one considering migrating to India and China? Both countries are booming and one is already a poor man’s super power. They need losers like us. Wishful thinking lah…

  21. China and India asking their diaspora to stay put so that they can export more china dolls and capati-sellers to Malaysia to balance their trade. Malaysia is not importing enough from these poor-man superpowers.

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