Who will win GE-13?


January 24, 2013

Who will win GE-13?

by P Gunasegaram@http://www.malaysiakini.com

QUESTION TIME Numbers, they say, never lie although statistics can be made to. Wherenajib-razak-july28 they are most useful, however, is when they can be analysed to give a scale of the magnitude of the task ahead for someone who wants to achieve something.

The Opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition, comprising of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), PAS, DAP and allies in Sabah and Sarawak, has made plain its target of taking over the government in the next 13th general election, and is publicly confident of doing so.

Can it? The figures clearly show that it is a much easier task for Barisan Nasional to keep its power than it is for Pakatan to wrest it away. Before I get pilloried as a doomsayer for Opposition chances, do hear me out. As I said, numbers don’t lie.

Let’s focus on Parliamentary elections which decide federal power. The March 2008 elections, GE12, saw a huge swing of votes to the opposition. Popular vote for Barisan Nasional (BN)  dropped to a mere 50.3 percent from its previous 64 percent. The BN lost 58 seats to the opposition, effectively Pakatan. The Opposition gained 61 seats to take 82 seats. The difference between seats gained and lost is because of the three additional seats in 2008.

In Peninsular Malaysia where all of the swing occurred, the Opposition had 51 percent of the popular vote. But because their strength was in the urban areas which had much higher population densities, it translated into a smaller proportionate number of 80 seats for the Opposition, and 84 seats for BN in the Peninsula.

What saved the day for BN was the very solid showing in Sabah and Sarawak where it lost just one seat in each of the two states to garner 25 seats in Sabah, and 31 seats in Sarawak. That gave them 56 seats from East Malaysia and thus, the right to rule.

Without the strong showing in Sabah and Sarawak, BN would have been really on the ropes, and much closer to losing the elections. In the event, BN garnered 140 seats in Parliament, comfortably exceeding Pakatan’s 82 seats, with only eight seats short of a two-thirds majority.

But it is a testament to the strong showing by BN in all the previous elections (barring the ill-fated 1969 elections) that this comfortable victory was still the worst showing by BN in any polls to date, forcing the resignation of BN head Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and the subsequent ascent of Najib Abdul Razak to his position as BN chief and Prime Minister.

DSAIWhat would it take for Pakatan to win GE13 at the Federal level? BN has 58 more parliament seats. It would need at the least a swing of 30 votes for a narrow two-seat majority in the house. For that, you need to see another swing as big as the one we saw in 2008 towards the Opposition.

The question is, where is Pakatan going to get the 30 seats? Most of the seats which are of a Chinese majority or which have significant Chinese populations, are already in the bag. Chinese votes can’t swing much more than it already has, and so is not likely to be decisive in terms of getting more seats, although it will help in the retention of many.

Key ‘Malay, Sabah and Sarawak’ votes

The key this time is whether there will be a continuous swing in Malay votes to PAS and PKR the way it was in 2008, and whether major swings will be seen in Sabah and Sarawak of the scale that was seen in 2008 in the Peninsula.

Realistically, one should expect that the swing to Pakatan, in terms of seats won, will moderate overall in Peninsular Malaysia, and that there will be some reversals even if the popular vote overall increases in favour of the Opposition.

That would mean that without a significant shift in Sabah and Sarawak, and a gain of at Malaysiansleast 15 seats there to 17 overall from East Malaysian states, there is likely to be little chance of upsetting the BN hold in terms of Parliamentary seats. Even with such a swing there, Pakatan still needs to get an additional 15 seats in the Peninsular, which is not an easy task.

Yes, Pakatan will make more inroads. But will they win? Tough, but not impossible. After all, no one predicted the swing to Pakatan in 2008. What’s there to say that it could not happen again? A lot could depend on the events leading up to the elections.

Opposition pundits point to investigations by the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the illegal immigration and registration of voters there which may find traction among Sabahans in favour of the Opposition.

Those who think BN will win say Najib has tried hard to regain both the middle ground and Malay votes, and may succeed at least partially.

One thing’s for sure, its going to be closer than ever before. If you want to make your vote count – and your vote will count more than at anytime, since voting had begun in this country in 1955 – make sure you go out there and vote on polling day, even if you have to return from Singapore or Kalimantan.

That way, whatever the result and whichever party you supported, you would have done your part towards free and fair elections in this country, the results of which would reflect majority aspirations.

17 thoughts on “Who will win GE-13?

  1. Every one must & should vote for a better future not for us but the poor unborn babies which are our children and granchildren, some even great grandchildren….make it happen!

  2. Pakatan can win and also can loose.

    BN knows where numbers are. They also know DAP young turks will be the cause of Pakatan’s lost so even before the intended win, young DAP turks are jostling for positions not knowing that the numbers come from non-urban votes. If Pakatan intend to win, the DAP had better rein-in its opportunists young turks.

    PAS is steadfast and had tried to work with DAP within Pakatan. PAS don’t have the the sort of young turks in DAP.

    Meanwhile PKR is also steadfast within while trying to get its allies together.

    The person who knows the politics of voting, frogging and etc. is Atir. He’s been through these too many times and has a whole bag of strategy to win with what to say, where to say and when to say. In the end he may just be the person who take away the cake from the sweets handed by ajib.

  3. “…The key this time is whether there will be a continuous swing in Malay votes to PAS and PKR the way it was in 2008, and whether major swings will be seen in Sabah and Sarawak of the scale that was seen in 2008 in the Peninsula.”

    Nothing new .

    I have said the same thing but not in so many words, and said it so many times nauseatingly and as far back as 2-3 years ago, as the bloghost can testify.

    Anybody who had watched elections in the last 15-20 years and analyse the way how UMNO-BN manipulated the boundaries of seats to retain power, besides the use of fraud with phantom voters and instant citizens and the ghosts in the postal votes, should come to the SAME conclusion.

    The road to Putrajaya is paved by rural Malay heartland votes and surfaced by the Sabahan and Sarawakian votes. Chinese and Indian votes good only for leveling up the potholes and cracks.

    Pakatan has a uphill battle to win Malay votes. Even Pro- PAS bloggers say the PRO-UMNO Ulamas have strong influence in the PAS Shura Council and they are out to sabotage PAS’s and PAKATAN’S chances in the GE13 ( because they don’t like the pact with DAP and PR in Pakatan Rakyat ).

    The same sabotage they did in 2004 when PAS and DAP lost very badly to UMNO-BN. READ HERE.

    BEFORE the 2004 GE, these PRO-UMNO Ulamas in PAS led by Haron Din introduced the Hudud Enactment in Trengganu (which resulted in PAS losing the state in 2004) and the Islamic State Declaration, which forced DAP out of the Barisan Alternatif (the predecessor of Pakatan) and WHICH WAS MEANT TO FRIGHTEN NON MUSLIMS VOTERS into the arms of UMNO-BN. PAS and DAP and then Parti Keadlin lost heavily across the Peninsular Malaysia. They were hammered.

    Fast-forward to 2012, and prior to the 2013, the SAME Pro-UMNO ulamas in the Shura Council AGAIN LED by Dr Haron Din are repeating the same tactic in 2004, this time using the Allah issue and the Malay Bible controversy, to divide the Pro-Pakatan Malay votes and again to FRIGHTEN NON MUSLIM VOTES. Haron Din has this time the services of Nasharuddin Mat Isa in PAS and Hasan Ali ( the Pro UMNO sacked PAS member) outside, creating havoc for the Progressive factions in PAS.

    Pro-UMNO bloggers are singing praises of Haron Din and at the same time smearing the name of Tok Guru Nik Aziz, in the hope of getting rid of Nik Aziz and have their comrade-in-arms in PAS, Haron Din to lead PAS.

    Haron Din’s proxy is Nasharuddin Mat Isa. PAS leadership was unable to discipline Nasharuddin because Haron Din acts as “godfather” of Nasharuddin in PAS. As long as Haron Din is the PAS leadership, Nasharuddin is untouchable even if he blatantly support UMNO’s agenda against the policies of the PAS leadership under Hadi Awang and Nik Aziz.

    Now, Najib brings along Nasharuddin Mat Isa on overseas trip ( this time to Gaza).. see PHOTO here, perhaps to hatch more schemes to destabilise PAS in the coming GE 13.In the photo Nasharuddin is standing the right (next to Najib).

    The last time Nasharuddin was in the touring company of Najib was in middle of last year (2012) when Najib went to Mecca for the Haj

    As what they did in 2004, for 2013, these SAME Pro-UMNO ulamas are using the Allah and the Malay bible issue to achieve the same ends. READ HERE FOR MORE ON THIS

    However, Haron Din and his ilk might have overplayed their religious cards on the Allah and Malay Bibles this time around in 2013. This is because these two issues hit at the heart of the Sabah and Sarawakian voters WHICH WILL HURT UMNO-BN.

    Whereas in 2004, the huddud and the Islamic State issues had little consequence to the East Malaysians. But the Allah and the Malay Bible issue do.

    But does Harun Din care about the East Malaysians ? NO. Only UMNO-BN cares.

    Haron Din’s interest is to TAKE OUT PAS from PAKATAN, and for him and his conservative faction to regain control of PAS ie to put in place those PAS leaders who prefer UMNO to PKR and DAP.

    At the moment, this infighting between the Pro-Pakatan liberals and the Pro UMNO-conservatives remains just below the surface and ind the background .

    However, all hell will break loose and it will come to the fore when Tok Guru Nik Aziz leaves the scene. (Reminiscent of the days of Datuk Asri and Datuk Nasir, both from Kelantan in the 70s).

    Even Nik Aziz’s son is on the side of the Pro-UMNO conservatives as he too has political ambition but he has little support from the liberals in PAS. Interestingly Hadi Awang is a late converter to the Pro-Pakatan faction after he had the opportunity to see for himself personally on the politics of PKR and DAP and he has no fear of them anymore, unlike his fiery Islamic rhetoric in 1981.

    Now here is the worry for Pakatan to work on:

    1. DAP and PR need to do more ( not PAS) to sound out to the non Muslim voters not to be frightened by this Allah and Bible issue and to think that PAS leadership is untrustworthy partner and to stay steadfast to Pakatan to win Putrajaya, They must know what is going on with the infighting WITHIN PAS right now.

    2. secondly, and let the Allah issue and the Bible issue and the citzenship issue be the central message in Sabah and Sarawak.

    3. The Pro-Pakatan Pas MPs in the mixed constituencies should be working day and night on the door-knocks at almost every home in their constituency to counter the pro UMNO propanganda and really explain what’s happening right now on the division in PAS.

    NON Muslim voters across the country need to support the Progressive MPs in PAS, people like Khalid Samad, Dr Dzulkefly, Mat Sabu, and others.

    For the PAS supporters, Malays and non Malays alike, unless these progressive PAS members are re elected and/or elected under PAS, the party wiil lrevert back to his old fundamentalist backward- ooking political party irrelevant to modern day Malaysia. And this allows UMNO-BN to revert back to its old habits of ruining the economy of the country ffurther while these turban-wearing PAS chaps will spend time looking into the pages of the Quran instead of giving attention to the economic development of the country – exactly what UMNO-BN want out of PAS.

    So Malaysians, especially the Malays, remember these two words : “Carpe diem”. If you don’t then save as much money so that your children can go overseas to study and you too can migrate out.

    Forget about the crowd at the HKR-112 rally. It means nothing. Crowds at rallies don’t necessarily convert to votes. These NON Muslim chaps at the rally are having a good time and to feel good of themselves by coming out. Others are there to join the party as bewildered spectators.
    ___________________
    Dr. Haron Din is likely to succeed Tok Guru Nik when the latter takes the flight to eternity. –Din Merican

  4. After the pathologist today announced that the cause of the dead Indian man who was punched by the cops while still hancuffed, was HEART ATTACK, PM Najib Razak and BN can expect the Indians to desert his nambikei forever… he will have to walk alone… perhaps like most non-Liverpool FC supporter… go walk alone!

  5. Tok Cik,

    Cerita dalam PAS macam mana? Nampaknya, huru-hara diperingkat kepimpinan PAS!

    With a former DEPUTY PRESIDENT of PAS cuddling closely in public with the PRESIDENT OF UMNO, and there is nothing the President of PAS, Hadi Awang and the rest in the leadership can do anything about it.

    Hadi Awang and Nik Aziz look like lame ducks.

    Nasharuddin is basically givng Hadi Awang and the rest of the PAS leadership who support Pakatan, a middle finger, since he knows his godfather Haron Din will not let Hadi Awang or Nik Aziz discipline him.

    Is Haji Hadi Awang’s days numbered and why is Mustapha Ali., from Trengganu, used to be a Pro-UMNO faction player, very quiet lately?

  6. BN will win GE13! Absolutely no doubt about it!

    They will cheat, they will threaten, they will do anything to win. Their last resort will be to orchestrate violence, suspend the election results, declare emergency rule, throw all the opposition leaders into jail, when the dust settle, call for a fake election 2 years later where they will win hands down.

    For the sake of your family and loved ones, leave Malaysia! The country is doomed to go back to stone-age.

  7. Din :

    The battleground states are Terenganu , Johor and Sabah.
    Gunasegaram can find the 20++ seats from the above.
    The big bet that PR is stitching will be majority in Peninsula ( turn the tables on BN ) and hoping Sabah + Sarawak wont wish swimming upstream.

    For all of us get ready for an almost hung parliament. Both PR + BN are capable of winning , albeit with razor thin majority.

    For the likes of us operating in financial markets ; this is a great situation. Correlation will be out of the window and brave hands will be presented with value buys on tap.

    There will be a bit of blood on the streets _ and i sincerely hope it will be limited to financials fare.

    The 2m ++ young voting block is the key constituency. Their disappointment towards old fogeys ( like us ) are palpable.

    Cheers.

  8. Excellent take, Frank. Should be an article all by itself.

    What needs to be said is that on the other side of the equation, UMNO itself is in serious disarray, with lots of confusion, jockeying and internal sabotage. The seniors are giving Jibs ‘The Finger’. Some of the more erudite ones, indeed prefer Jibs Co. and present-day UMNO fail, in order to rejuvenate the Party.

    PAS doesn’t figure at all in East-Malaysia, where the Keys to the kingdom lie. Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor are no longer safe havens’ for UMNO and clean sweeps in the Malay heart-land is no longer a fore-gone conclusion, as seen by the banning of PAS ANAK into Felda ands Felcra schemes.

    So notwithstanding a slight swing towards UMNO in the Peninsular, if PR play their cards right, like in Sibu by-election, they’ll stand a even chance of toppling the status quo. The urban and semi-urban seats will probably be more entrenched with the Opposition, as the Malays i’ve spoken to – seem very disenchanted with UMNO’s hypocrisy, even with the massive vote-buying. Inflation, not wage increment seems to be their bane.

    Although there has be some re-delineation of electoral boundaries, the gerrymandering is not as intense as in the past – perhaps because of the massive number of ‘phantoms’.

    So GE-13, could well turn out to be be a battle in logistics and the spirit of ‘God’ – not so
    much pork-barrel politics and Lu tolong, gua tolong. What we tend to forget, is the emotive issues that transcend mere materialism.

  9. No doubt the opposition are doing some good jobs in in the GE-12 terms, but unfortunately many are still think that the opposition are not ready to lead the country at this point of time.

    You can see many voices and comments of critics abt BN and a major turnout during the KL112, but how many of them will want to change the government in the near coming GE-13??

    Many are just merely showing their anger abt the way the curren government policies and they want a change. So the change of BN policies or change the government you can ask!!!

    There are many close battles during the the past elections…i would say the opposition will just give up when the result are not favoring them.

    For now the opposition need to believed what they are doing benefits the RAKYAT include them as a RAKYAT and continue doing it even the GE-13 may be a disappointment for them.

    The time will come that the peoples of Malaysia feel that the opposition are ready and they will be walking to the bail-out box confidently with no doubt.

  10. Why not have a look at the documentary “The Silent Riot” by Nadira Ilana? Taken together with the shocking “expose” of RCI in Sabah, it will impact voting pattern in Sabah. No forgetting the “plot” by Awang Tengah to topple Peh Moh in Sarawak, one thing is quite certain – Sabah & Sarawak are “safe deposits” no more!

  11. How do you predict something you can’t have any real details? Face it, even if you accept the poll was correct, its not going to tell you much if electoral roll is rigged far enough..Its pure speculation of how much the electoral roll is rigged.

    EVEN in 2008, the electoral roll was rigged already. Electoral roll has been rigged for long long time. Its not new. Given the backlog, the amount of rigging they can manipulate is beyond just the suspicious numbers PR has digged out. There is no way to know..

  12. The law of nature says 55 is the number. 55 years from Merdeka…………is 2012 Aug 31. We are a year passed 55. Wasn’t the skip advised or circumvented? Numbers are absurd? Not when its number by the law of nature that complement universal cycles.

    Does Mahathir believe in the law of nature?
    Mahathir announced his resignation at the UMNO assembly in 2002, after 21 years in power. He retired in 2003 Oct. The law of nature says 21 is the number. Looks like Mahathir respected the law of nature and that had allowed him to remain popular. Was Mahathir superstitious?

    If Mahathir respect the law of nature than, 55 on from Merdeka………..Pakatan will win and Mahathir may not live to work out his legacy to his next generation. A win by Pakatan would also break intended legacy of the cousins.

    Mahathir knows too well. He had seen the Japanese market burst and others that came and went by the law of natural numbers.

    Pakatan on the other hand may know this unseen force…………..and wishfully charge ahead !…………………but manipulation is at hand; phantoms and new MyKads are on call. Despite this, 2008 was a close shave. Then, this year could be Pakatan’s calling. But, how many more thousands illegal MyKads were issued in recent 5 years?

  13. Din is right to say that the number of seats for Pakatan in Peninsular came close to saturation point.Pakatan may lose some in Peninsular,but will gain some too.Overall cant Pakatan add in another 10 to 15 seats in peninsular?Chances are Pakatan can pull through.

    The sentiments are different now compared to 2008.Pakatan is more organized now than before.They are able to deliver messages better than before despite all odds.Pakatan leaders are more noticeable now compared to pre 2008.Their massages are simple and making more sense than BN.Blunders of BN and BN leaderships exposed on daily basis are more than that of Pakatan and they are credible too.

    East Malaysia looks ready to give the much needed swing for Pakatan.This is a new frontier for Pakatan.There is a good chance too that Pakatan may pull a formidable support,enough to compliment the shortfall in Peninsular.

    Yes it’s not an easy task for Pakatan,neither for BN.That’s why GE13 is the most exciting!
    ______________
    Data, not only exciting, it is also going to be a tough race towards the finishing line–Putrajaya. Realistically speaking, the incumbent enjoys certain advantages in this election and that may be enough to put UMNO-BN ahead.–Din Merican

  14. I notice most of the comments here saying Pakatan will win are based more on their DESIRE for Pakatan to win rather than based on cold hard facts on the ground.

    UMNO-BN at this stage of the game has a clear run for PUTRAJAYA, simply because PAKATAN leadership is not doing enough to win the votes of the rural Malay heartland. As I said before winning the votes in EastMalaysia is not enough to offset the advantage UMNO-BN has over the rural Malay votes and the Indian votes.

    The component expected to bring the rural Malay votes across to PAKATAN is PAS, but the infighting in PAS spearheaded by Harun Din and Nasharuddin Mat Isa is purposely directed at moving the rural Malay votes to UMNO-BN. DAP and PKR cannot win the rural Malay votes.

    Why Najib is delaying the GE is not because of his fear of PAKATAN winning but his own internal problems of backstabbing by his deputy Muhyiddin and Kutty Supremo who are determined to remove him from office, either before or after the GE.

    So stop dreaming about a PAKATAN unless there is a minor miracle taking place from now until the GE.

  15. Why is the sarawak CM still there!!! Long time ago, he was elected to serve the people. Then he has a grip on 3 super posts: CM, Finance Minister, Minister of Planng & Resource Managemt , appoints his successor, appoints the Dep CM, all the state level ministers, all the city mayors kuching, sibu, bintulu miri, etc, all directors of departments, departmt heads. Awards timber concessions for decades without tenders. Land grabs, collusion with timber, oil palm, shipping & development tycoons. Cousin runs the Energy and the giant Naim Group. Devours all the mega million projects with costs over-runs or inflated for kickbacks, controls the media….Cling to power for 31 years and wanting to be Governor. Now upcoming cronies plotting to take over and plunder another 30 yrs. Even USA Pres Obama needs senate approvals for appointments. What kind of democracy is this? Hell broke lose! This is not a can but a sea of worms, maggots, devils & monsters. Your CM is rated at some RM45billion, and look at your rural living conditions. And you can tolerate another day without protest?

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