GE-13: Azul stands by his analysis


January 20, 2013

GE-13: Azul stands by his analysis

by Malaysiakin (01-19-13)@http://www.malaysiakini.com

The Bank Islam chief economist who was suspended for predicting a narrow victory for Pakatan Rakyat in the upcoming general election is standing by his analysis and said it was done professionally.

“I made my analysis professionally, honestly and impartially in accordance with the best practices in the industry after taking into account the factors that ought to be properly included in such an exercise,” said Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajuddin.

azlanAzrul lamented that he had been accused by some bloggers and politicians that his presentation at the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum on January 10 was “unprofessional, biased and partisan” because he is a PKR member.

“I maintain that I have given an honest and professional opinion at the forum. I believe that there is no proper cause to take disciplinary action against me,” he said in a statement today.

“It is indeed a tragedy for the state of Malaysian democracy when an opinion that is unfavourable to the ruling party is sufficient cause for disciplinary action and licence for character assassination by certain quarters.”

According to Azrul, his presentation at the Singapore’s forum was on the Malaysian 2013 economic outlook, and as such it was necessary to take into consideration all relevant factors that may have a bearing on the economic situation this year and beyond.

“It is impossible to deny that the results of the 13th general election will have a critical impact on the Malaysian economy. I had carried out my analysis based on publicly available information and stated my assumptions for three scenarios.”

The three scenarios for BN are:

1) Scenario with high probability:

  • Narrow loss for BN, securing only 97-107 parliamentary seats (narrow victory for Pakatan: 115-125)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu and Perlis
  • Narrowly retain Pahang and Johor
  • Lose significant ground in Malacca, Sabah and Sarawak

2) Scenario with moderate probability:

  • Narrow win for BN, securing 112-122 parliamentary seats (narrow loss for Pakatan: 100-110)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak and Negri Sembilan

3) Scenario with low probability:

  • Big loss for BN, securing only 82-92 parliamentary seats (big victory for PR: 130-140)
  • Failure to retake Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan
  • Lose control of Perak, Negri Sembilan, Terengganu, Perlis and Pahang
  • Narrowly retain Johor and Malacca
  • Lose significant ground in Sabah and Sarawak

Azrul warned that he would take legal action against those who seek to tarnish his reputation and make defamatory remarks on his “integrity and credibility” on the performance of his profession.  “I shall not hesitate to commence legal proceedings against them to protect and vindicate my reputation. I am confident that truth and justice will prevail.”

PRESS STATEMENT by Bank Islam Chief Economist

JAN 19 – I have been accused by certain bloggers, politicians and others that myazrul presentation at the Singapore Regional Outlook Forum that Pakatan Rakyat will secure a narrow victory in the forthcoming 13th General Elections is unprofessional, biased and partisan. One of the accusations of unprofessionalism is that I am a member of Parti Keadilan Rakyat.

I wish to state that the subject of my presentation at the Forum was on the Malaysian 2013 economic outlook. It was therefore necessary to take into consideration all relevant factors that may have a bearing on the economic situation in 2013 and beyond. It is impossible to deny that the results of the 13th General Election will have a critical impact on the Malaysian economy. I had carried out my analysis based on publicly available information and stated my assumptions for three scenarios: (1) a narrow Barisan Nasional victory; (2) a narrow Pakatan Rakyat victory and (3) a wide Pakatan Rakyat victory.

I made my analysis professionally, honestly and impartially in accordance with the best practices in the industry after taking into account the factors that ought to be properly included in such an exercise.

I stand by my analysis and the presentation I made at the Forum. I maintain that I have given an honest and professional opinion at the Forum. I believe that there is no proper cause to take disciplinary action against me.

I am also giving notice to the bloggers, politicians and others who seek to tarnish my reputation and make defamatory remarks on my integrity and credibility on the performance of my profession that I shall not hesitate to commence legal proceedings against them to protect and vindicate my reputation.

It is indeed a tragedy for the state of Malaysian democracy when an opinion that is unfavourable to the ruling party is sufficient cause for disciplinary action and license for character assassination by certain quarters. I am confident that truth and justice will prevail.

* This is the press statement issued by Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin, the Chief Economist suspended by Bank Islam Malaysia.–www.themalaysianinsider.com

25 thoughts on “GE-13: Azul stands by his analysis

  1. UMNO-BN must prove that Azrul is wrong in his prediction. It is good for UMNO strategists to find out why the election results may be against Najib remaining in control of Putrajaya, and advise the Prime Minister accordingly.. Maybe they have done so but the Prime Minister is not listening since he believes that his personal popularity will be enough to win decisively.

    Malaysians want a two party system and will ensure that Pakatan Rakyat gets its share of their support. It is, therefore, not wrong for me to say that we Malaysians are not willing to give any political coalition a 2/3d majority. A Hung Parliament is likely. We cannot trust either UMNO-BN or Pakatan Rakyat to give them too strong a mandate. Good luck to both sides.–Din Merican

  2. Congratulations! The new breed of Malaysian is now taking over the country. Sue them and your case will only be heard after GE13. The court cannot but give judgement in your favour because the election results will be your Judge insyallah

  3. Azrul is giving his considered opinion based on data available. What is the reason to suspend him? Would it not be better to counter with different set of data and regular BN spins, which Malaysians have had steady dosage over the years, with years of docility, regulars will consume it with relish..why do this and reinforce your enemy’s strength. It looks like BN is even losing control of its domain and has to resort to just plain politicking..,

  4. CEO of Bank Islam Dato Sri Zukri Samat should be sacked for failure to recognised and accept professoionally prepared opinion and reports .If we allow this type of person to spearhead the bank he will continue giving a false and misleading report just to please his political masters.BIMB is owned by goverment and by UMNO.If we allow this type of person to lead BIMB we will continue to receive distorted reports on bank performance.We want professional and impartial perso to lead the bank and NOT politically minded person.Person who does not appreciate the work of profesionnally qualified persons is not fit or doesnt deserve to lead any organisation.

  5. The upshot is : The bank is called ISLAMIC Bank.

    Not only the bank disgraces Malaysians, it disgraces the name “ISLAM”.

    Bank Islam should change its name to BANK UMNO.

    In support of Azrul, I call all my fellow Muslim brothers and sisters to withdraw all their deposits and stop doing business with Bank Islam.

    Boycott Bank Islam NOW!

    Teach the bank a lesson with your pockets. Now most banks in Malaysia have Islamic banking facilities. So what’s the problem. If you are a PR or PAS supporter, that should be your response.

    Don’t whinge and complain about, JUST DO IT.

  6. Alamak, Azrul is now on the war path to protect his professional integrity. What do you think now can happen hishamh? We should be fair – Azrul was only giving his opinion and so was hishamh.

    Din, betul kamu kata – we should not entrust any political party or coalition with too much power (2/3rd to any side should be avoided) so that democracy will be alive on the day-to-day basis, rather than only in every 4 or 5 years, with the rakyat’s wishes being taken into account all the time. The challenge will be to know exactly what the majority of the rakyat wishes for as sole dependence on the NGOs might only cater for the wishes of the vocal minorities and frequent referendum to get the majority opinion will be too cumbersome. However a weaker government will be more pliable and may be good for democracy and perhaps will lessen corruptions. The down side could be that the weak government will pursue more populist programmes with such things as more hand-outs, more subsidies, lower taxes, higher pays to civil servants etc which would be detrimental to our economy in the long run.

    Letting the people to have a “daily grip” on the government will empower them democratically but the government will be less daring and less motivated “to lead” and will be more willing “to follow” – I am not sure if this could be good for us in the end.
    __________________
    Accountable, competent and transparent government is desirable, not an ideal. –Din Merican

  7. Sdr Azrul, seems to be seeing the Big Picture which is a good thing for anyone of his profession. Not sure where he’s getting his raw data from, but political affiliation tends to cloud judgement.

    Most of us go by sheer ‘gut-instinct'; and mine says that his ‘high probability’ scenario is what i envisage too. But there is a lot of gastro-enteritis nowadays, and i seem to be suffering quite a lot.

    Most of the pro-BN economists are being fed data by sycophantic gate-keepers, who drive obliviously and aimlessly – ignoring the huge potholes and washed out roads to perdition. Being honest, skeptical and cynical is considered Treason to the ‘Health’ of the Rotten system, and inimical to one’s career.

    We all know that Politics is about being as populist as can be. What we need are Leaders who see the big picture, and not contemplate their navels all day long. They must act with integrity and honesty – no matter the transient pain and chaos, not merely sloganize, depend on hordes of blinkered Public Relations hacks nor doling out cheap, indiscriminate party tricks like an old worn out whore.

    So in ‘essence’, what does 1Malaysia stand for? A joke of stupendous Populism based on denial and hypocrisy. They say one thing to please, then do the opposite – a sure sign of ‘Confusion’.

    To reinstate Azrul would be an admission to their ‘mistake’ and a slap to their ingrained SNAFU-ness. They will not wake up.., for they cannot Change.

    So to Sdr. Azrul, stand firm and stay the course – but don’t sue, since that will bring you down to their level. Being a scapegoat is tough and dangerous, but you will prevail. Heterodoxy is the mother of all innovation and progress. Well done!

  8. Frank, you won’t get the Malay Muslims to boycott Bank Islam. Jakim and all the UMNO ulamas will come out en force and will pass a fatwa condemning Malay Muslims for boycotting an Islamic institution. These Malay Muslims will be quick to protest and boycott Coca Cola, KFC, McDonald but Bank Islam? I doubt it.

  9. In UMNOwide political culture and practice, they want you to only listen, listen and listen and besides taking away your microphone they’ll be
    after your job as well the moment you offend their ego.

  10. We are the world, we are the children
    We are the ones who make a brighter day
    So let’s start giving
    There’s a choice we’re making
    We’re saving our own lives
    It’s true we’ll make a better day
    Just you and me

  11. Dr MM has destroyed Sabah, solely to make UMNO supreme, at the expense of other races, so they can plunder on and on. Astronomical Apartheid (giving resources to one race and not to others). Deception (control of media to fool the electorate). Gerrymandering and election rigging to steal elections. Hijacked & destroyed the Judiciary. Human right abuse, torture & suspected murders; what happenedd to Sabah CM Donald Stephen? Mismanagement & corruption (An economist at Morgan Stanley assessed M’sia might have lost US$100 bil since the early 80s to corruption (=RM300 bil = RM300,000 million) and Treason – granting national IC to aliens to get votes to stay in power and plunder on. Yet not a trace of humility and remorse, walking & talking proud, playing God. Call for his arrest now, to be charged !

  12. Many BN politicians & cronies are nothing short of mentally-deranged, lowest-life criminals. Despite their heinous crime, they still stand, walk and talk so proudly and gloriously. Criminals will do anything to save their skin when the stake is high. Police, Macc, A-G, Umno-Bn Politicians, Civil Servants, all are flocking together. I speak as a 3rd party, neutral Country rated as one of the most democratic,
    ‘bersih’ and uncorrupt in the world – NZ.

  13. An inspiration to Economist Azrul
    —————————————–
    Whatever you be, be the very best (Abraham Lincoln)…..because.

    We are the champions – my friends
    And we’ll keep on fighting – till the end –
    We are the champions –
    We”ll be the champions
    No time for losers
    ‘Cause we are the champions – of 1Malaysia –

    We’ve taken our bows
    And our curtain calls –
    These brought us justice and blessings and everything that goes with it –
    Thanking all Malaysians for standing tall –

    But it’s been no bed of roses
    No pleasure cruise –
    To consider it a challenge before 1Malaysian race –
    And we ain’t gonna lose –

    (lyrics modified from We are the Champions by MJ)

  14. Those was not one person’s job but involving many people.Identify those people and charge them also for cooperating.This has nothing to do with religion but greed for power and money.We have enough laws here but again as long these same party rule the country nothing will happen to them.Please be patient even now these people are shivering because they know they are going to collapse at this coming general election.

  15. His analysis sounds to me like a professional assessment not a political statement. So what is the basis of the suspension? I’m pretty sure the bank’s management DID NOT get instruction to take the disciplinary action. Rather its the age old Malay culture of trying to please their masters. Adat mengampu. A carry over of our feudal culture.

  16. It’s more like UMNO stupidity of not knowing how to manipulalate what Azrul say. UMNO-BN deserved to be tui lam.

    Din,
    Hung parliament is a no no for malaysia. Britain is different. Eben then neither Tory not Labour prefer hung parliament…..Don’t think it’s really working well in UK.
    Jim Callaghan, a brilliant PM failed to run the country because of hung parliament

  17. A ‘hung’ parliament does not mean a 111-111 or even a 107-115 margin.
    A hung parliament is one that most administrators fear, if the democracy is unable to get beyond cynical polemics and rampant politicizing of innocuous issues. By this definition, we have been hanging for the past 5 years, except that we didn’t know about it.

    What needs to ‘change’ is the culture of entitlement, corruption and nepotism; and we can only barely glimpse the sun rising over the horizon. Both the Establishment and the Opposition have become so populist that the future of this democracy is pulled down to the lowest common denominator – the stomach and genitalia. Anything else is an addendum.

    Franklin D Roosevelt: “Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore is education.’ But looking at our glorious ‘Listen-Listen-Listen education’ does anyone really have high expectations of an enlightened, healthy, functioning Democracy. At best we are 2 generations away – thanks to the debasement wrought on the proletariat by the Elite.

  18. Looes74, I don’t think Jim Callaghan was a brilliant PM.

    He was one of the few British PMs who really came from poor and humble beginnings. I mean, he joined the Inland Revenue at 17 because his parents could not afford to send him to University – even though he passed the entrance exams.

    And yet, it was the public sector workers (those who could relate to him) who went on strike most during the “winter of discontent” – which led to his downfall. The Lib-Lab pact under him was not quite the same as the coalition govt of today.

    With hindsight, I think his personality did not suit the mood of the people at that time. His downfall led to Thatcher taking over the helm. And, we all know what happened for the next decade and more.

  19. what is brilliance anyway? It is that we are completely aware of our own limitaitons or enlightenment and we are completely aware of another Human person’s rights and dignity. That is brilliance. When are we all going to stop looking at the outward conditions and start choosing Higher values for this country? Either you choose a Higher values system or you perish. That is the laws of the Universe , easy, straightforward!

  20. Azrul just has to be extra careful now.Knowing BN they will resort to all kinds of tactics to get even.They may now working hard to cook stories to discredit Azrul.

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