October 6, 2012
Malaysian Politics
No Time Like Tomorrow
Another budget, More cash handouts and More dithering over an election date
The Economist
Oct 6th 2012 | SINGAPORE | from the print edition
Najib coiled for Action
THE Prime Minister, Najib Razak, fancies himself as the Tony Blair of Malaysian politics. Like the former British Prime Minister, Mr Najib purports to be a progressive reformer, on a mission to “modernise” his country.
The British-educated Mr Najib also likes to pay as much attention to the spin on his policies as to their substance. He even hires former Blair advisers to make sure he gets it right.
For all that, Mr Najib increasingly resembles the hapless Gordon Brown, Mr Blair’s nemesis and successor. For years Mr Brown agitated to push his rival aside. When at last he succeeded, Mr Brown blew it by missing the chance to call an early election while he was still relatively popular. Rather than winning his own mandate, Mr Brown, unelected and indecisive, watched his authority drain away until he was boxed into calling an election right at the end of his term—which he then lost.
Similarly, Mr Najib took over after an internal party coup in April 2009 against the then Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi. Talk of an early election for Mr Najib to secure his own mandate first surfaced towards the end of 2010. He himself began to talk up his chances the following June. Then an election was expected towards the middle of this year. All along, Malaysia has been on an election footing, with the cautious Mr Najib ponderously cultivating the voters.
He has crafted new policies for Malaysia’s younger, unaligned citizens while giving away plenty of money to retain his party’s traditional supporters, especially among the ethnic-Malay (and Muslim) majority. In the budget in late September more cash handouts went to poorer households and a one-month salary bonus to all government workers. They usually vote for Mr Najib’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO).
Would that there were more to show for all the shadow electioneering. Opinion polls conducted by the respected Merdeka Centre (the latest were for June) gave the Prime Minister an approval rating of 64%, down from the high point of his popularity in the middle of 2010. Still not bad, you might think, but the popularity of the ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional (BN), is much lower than the Prime Minister’s own.
So now Mr Najib’s options are diminishing fast. He is required to call an election by April at the latest. In the process he has acquired a reputation for dithering, and now has the regrettable distinction of being Malaysia’s second-longest-serving unelected Prime Minister, just behind his own father, the country’s second Prime Minister.
Given UMNO’s deep pockets and its practice of gerrymandering constituency boundaries, winning a simple majority has always looked relatively easy for Mr Najib. After all, the ruling coalition, made up of UMNO and several smaller parties, has achieved that in every election since independence in 1957.
Yet Mr Najib’s real aim is to win back the two-thirds majority that the BN lost for the first time at the last election, in 2008. In so doing the BN lost its power, among other things, to tinker with the constitution. That failure led directly to the coup against Mr Badawi and the elevation of Mr Najib.
The Prime Minister knows that if he fails to reverse the humiliation of 2008, a genuinely hard task, then he could go the same way as his predecessor. (His chief protection is that personally he remains more popular than the BN.)
Mr Najib has also been spooked by a series of political setbacks. His government mishandled a couple of huge rallies by a coalition of NGOs called Bersih (meaning “clean” in Malay) campaigning for fair elections. And poring perhaps too closely over the minutiae of local-election results, the BN has fretted over a fall in support among Chinese voters. They form the largest minority in the country’s complex ethnic mosaic.
The problem for Malaysia is that the rival parties have been at such a high pitch of combat-readiness for such a long time that the resulting partisanship is poisoning national politics. Pretty murky at the best of times, politics is becoming dirtier by the day. UMNO and its friends in the press and television have been relentless in their assaults on any organisation, such as Bersih, that is deemed to be sympathetic to the opposition.
Another target has been an excellent independent website called Malaysiakini. All the old canards about these sorts of groups being in the pay of Zionists, America or George Soros, a foreign financier, have been trotted out. It is not clear whether such slanders still impress Malaysia’s voters, especially its Muslims. They are certainly a sign of desperation.
Our Malaysian Brown is a hapless and gutless PM.Not of prime ministerial material.Always talks big but gutless to the core!His two little balls have been shrinked by the shudders and fright of losing the GE.Malaysia will be better without such coward.Anything But UMNO.Go ABU.
Din,
I had been told by Tan Sri Robert Phang that the task force formed by Najib managed to register a lot of foreigners with Malaysia passport,in Parliament areas won by the Opposition with marginal numbers.
No wonder recently Noh ,the UMNO deputy chief in Selangor making statement that they are very confident to capture back Selangor. Zaid Hamidi is making a statement that BN will capture Penang. Mukhriz making a statement that they will take back Kedah from PAS.
The question in the minds of political analysts and observers of Malaysian politics is : will Najib suffer the same fate as Gordon Brown? The answer will be provided by voters in GE-13.
My own view is that Najib is in a different situation compared to Brown who had to contend with the backlash from Blair’s pro-US foreign policy, especially the Iraq War against Saddam Hussein and Afghanistan and a UK weak economy. Najib is, on the other hand, still in control of his own party and the Barisan Nasional coalition and has built a formidable war chest to wage a successful campaign. His 2013 Budget will help his cause. In addition, the economy is on an even keel. He should, therefore, not be underestimated.The Economist shows a lack of understanding of our politics.
The Opposition politicians are upbeat about their chances of becoming the next government, thereby hoping to break the UMNO-BN monopoly on power for more than half a century. They see Najib’s dithering over elections as a sign of the Prime Minister’s lack of confidence. Crackdowns against civil society organisations like Bersih and Suaram and web-paper Malaysiakini which are deemed friendly to Anwar Ibrahim-led Pakatan Rakyat are, as the Economist says, “a sign of desperation”.
The Prime Minister has also allowed extreme right wing Malay NGOs like Perkasa and Perkida to add to his problems.But he has little choice as Chinese voters are decidedly pro-Pakatan Rakyat at the expense of MCA and Gerakan.Indian voters remain divided between MIC and PKR. And to counter PAS and win Malay support, UMNO strategists are playing the race and religion card.–Din Merican
PS. CLF, Frank, Bean, Semper Fi,Tok Cik, Donplaypuks, Isa Manteqi, Loess74, Abnizar, et.al, what do you think? Is my view a fair assessment of the situation?
“The Prime Minister has also allowed extreme right wing Malay NGOs like Perkasa and Perkida to add to his problems” — Dato Din Merican
What he cannot say as the country’s Prime Minister seen to need the critical support of 60% of the population, he can say through his surrogates like Ibrahim Ali. Just as Mitt Romney uses John Sununu (former GOP U.S. senator of Lebanese descent) to say Obama is “lazy” and “not so bright”.
I all the waffling and dithering will do UMNO in, irregardless of all the doggie treats he showers on the electorate, the acronymed projects that are toothlessly irrelevant and the massive cheating that will occur. By waiting indeterminately, he has definitely lost whatever ‘bounce’ he had as a penyapu baru. The modus operandi of UMNO has not adapted to cope with their sheer stupidity, rascally foibles and disgustingly corrupt ways. They have no more traction with the minority groups, whether in racist or religious slants. You can’t win on the strength on the Malay vote again. Even Octo had to condescendingly admit that the Chinapek votes saved his ass in 1999, when the Malays were split. It’s even worse now. I would it give a 55% chance of an Opposition win at Federal level, but leave the States to pundits who know better.
The goons have absolutely lost the Chinapek vote. The average urban Malay can see through his deceptions and are not impressed with his limpidity, while his kampong cousin is gonna get hit pretty bad when the prices of commodities plummet in the near term. The Indians are probably equally divided between the ravening have-nots and the recalcitrant remnants of Makkal Sakti. Sabah is similarly evenly divided, even with the massive illegal voters, and UMNO there is in disarray. Sarawak is probably the same, unless Pek-Moh can rein in the discontent, which i doubt.
All the hypocritical tactics and negative gutter politicking practiced like the sheer desperation of dragging a dead horse like Talam in Selangor and the idiotic 1 acre land in Penang only further disgusts a thinking voter. If you would notice, nowadays the Cabinet is run like the Bunker Government in the last days of the Third Reich.
Sabahan voters are the decider. If the opposition manage to avoid split votes in this critical state then a new era will dawn. Elsewhere the battle line is well drawn, give and take the swing voters, chances are it will likely be evenly split. But the spoiler is the EC which will rig the election. So watch out for the implementation of 7 out of 8 outstanding demands by BERSIH for electoral reforms. If these are not implemented, then it is a foregone conclusion.
The thing I hate most is over confidence n if we let it creep into PR,then you can kiss GE13 goodbye,PR has to get it’s act together,the pro govt media doesn’t help,their YB’s has got to go on the ground n solve cases in each of their areas,be more hands on.We have to expect with their small war chest against the might of BN,the YB’s hands on approach will surely work much better.Understand the Rules better n you will win the game.Oouch!!!
“…Chinese voters are decidedly pro-Pakatan Rakyat at the expense of MCA and Gerakan.I ndian voters remain divided between MIC and PKR. And to counter PAS and win Malay support, UMNO strategists are playing the race and religion card” – Din Merican
You are right, Din the Chinese are more inclined towards Pakatan. Indians are a little nervy but can be swayed by sentiments. But going by what I see at Ipoh Club, better known as the Royal Indian Club, most have made up their mind where their votes gonna go. The Malays are the deciding factor but with PAS hard at work it’s an uphill task for Jibby and his cohorts.
Perak is a test case come GE 13. The recent road shows by Suaram and Ambiga were well received by Perakeans.
Generally, urbanites are aware of the goings-on in Putrajaya, the latest being Ali Rustam’s lavish receptions for his son’s wedding. This may no longer hold water as rural Malays are beginning to see through the sham.
I was at Sayong, Kuala Kangsar recently and after having spoken to a few villagers was amazed by their knowledge. This is despite the regular doses of propaganda they receive from the mainstream media and their visiting YBs.
The general feeling is, the more Jibby keeps postponing GE 13 the more trouble he gonna court. As for Zambry he is cocksure BN gonna win, hands down. But he says this with much reservation.
@dinobeano, i think so, you are more accurate than the Economist that Najib is back on an even keel somewhat, after this great deal of sweltering to try & impress….
Although i have a lil bit of reservation – which is i think as a matter of hunch, as to the reasons why he is waffling & dithering for such long while. He is not in control and is STILL under the clutches of his party’s warlords, all the goons who had been groomed under the previous regime of Tun Mahathir – unseen & silent but ” powerfull ” !
My unsolicited opinion for them if they are to win GE is to apply the proverbial surgical knife of the doctor, and boldly cut-off the appendages or the vestigial organs of their own body-parts who are but mere parasites : this is the point. Most of the YBs & YABs who were the prerogatives of the PM, were goons as in Perak & Selangor, his party lost b’coz of characters like TR & Toyol, in N9 where the MB has police reports against him for corruption, not the least clowns in other states…
Don’t underestimate the younger generation of educated & discerning voters, its going to very critical either way…
So PM should once and for all stop vacillating & dithering, just apply the surgical instrument…..
Tok Cik,
As a perakian myself, I share your sentiment that Malay is the deciding factor in perak. I sincerely hope that nizar will become mb of perak & pakatan will win along with ngeh brothers. It will certainly make great folks such as the deceased p patto, seenivasagam brothers extremely happy.
Din,
It’s an extreme insult to compare najib to Gordon brown. I can’t think of any leader in the world to compare to.Seriously if 2/3 majority is najib aim, time to show him the middle finger. Too much time wasted on bn, umno, najib & above mahathir. It’s time for them to go now.
another world leader comparable with Jibs? ……….unthinkable; he had the police, special police and nearly complete control of the army/ navy /airforce, to a lesser extend the loyality of the civil forces and he also had considerable support from the ordinary folks who believed in ethnic superiority. all this did not help him to hang on to power – he lost miserably.
Malaysia is not an island in this globalised world. whatever happens to the economic situation in the US, Europe, PRC, India or Brazil will translate into problems for SEA countries.
who will be voting for Jibs?
the employees of the electricity board: retirement age raised to 60 immediately and six(?) bonuses this year.
the police, special police, army, navy, rela, silat defense front and all civil servants who have received their tid-bits.
but….all the Kings horses and all the Kings men could not put Dumpty together again…
I still have confidence in the malaysian public to vote wisely.
You guys still doubt that GE13 will be the most rigged elections in the country’s history? Penang, Perak, Kelantan, Trengganu and Selangor, Sabah and Sarawak could be said to be swing states. In the end only Penang and Kelantan will be states left standing. There will be no change at the federal level.
Let us not forget that Najib always has the reputation as king procrastinator – a ‘lalang’ always swaying which ever the wind blows and never has the guts to confront his detractors.
He has no strong convictions and principles. Remember how he switched camps at the last minute during the tussle between then PM Dr Mahathir Mohamad and party rival Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, with Mahathir emerging as the winner.
Najib is the “second longest unelected prime minister” primarily due to Mahathir repaying him a favour for the debt he owed him. He is just not prime minister material, just like Abdullah. The same goes for Muhyiddin.
They are all there because of the kingmaker, Mahathir Mohamad, who is a “retired”, recalcitrant, and utterly corrupt prime minister.
PM Najib Razak has been compared to former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who had failed to call for elections while he was still relatively popular.
Both were similarly unelected to the post and seen to be indecisive. Najib, when he took over the post from Abdullah Ahmad Badawi al-TidorMun, was riding high at least within his party.Then he didn’t face much internal dissension; the power struggle within the party was kept in check due to his well-supported rise to the top post.
Now we can detect even minor party leaders, probably nominees of his internal foes, showed open rebellion against their party chief, our Ah Jib Hor. This brings his prestige down and may well affect his performance in the coming GE.
He should have made time to read Machiavelli’s book ‘The Prince’, which states that “You don’t avoid such a war, you merely postpone it, to your disadvantage.” Najib will go down on the count of two (TKO).