September 29, 2012
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com
More on Najib’s 2013 Budget of Candies
Candied Budget unlikely to sweeten GE13 for BN, say Analysts
by Amin Iskandar, Hafidz Baharom, Md Izwan and Nomy Nozwir
Voters have grown more discerning and are unlikely to be swayed by cash incentives and other one-off perks into casting their ballot for the Barisan Nasional (BN) government at national polls due soon, pundits said in weighing in on the impact of Budget 2013.
Political observers interviewed by The Malaysian Insider wholly agreed that the RM251.6 billion announced yesterday, which promised a slew of cash handouts and tax cuts spread across the board, was trained to appeal to key demographic groups in the run-up to the 13th general election, but said voters had become increasingly shrewd and capable of weighing the short-term personal gains against the long-term fiscal impact on the national economy.
“There are only two words to describe it — election budget,” said Monash University’s Political Science lecturer James Chin.
He noted that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has “pulled out all the stops and given the voters their sentiments, to let them think twice about voting for the opposition” in elections that must be held by next April when BN’s five-year mandate won in March 2008 runs out.
“People will compare the budget to Pakatan Rakyat’s and will also see how the second round of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) will fuel inflation,” Chin added.
The fledging Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Opposition pact, formed just four years ago in the wake of landmark wins in Election 2008, has promised to raise the disposable income of Malaysians in an alternative set of Budget proposals just two days before the Najib administration unveiled its official proposals for spending and taxes.
Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had said disposable income would rise through fiscal reform measures such as cutting the triple import taxes on foreign-made cars, abolishment of tolls and waiver of student loans, as PR sought to pre-empt Najib’s Budget announcement.
Anwar said a PR government would be able to pay for the proposed measures not through raising taxes but by plugging leakages that arise as a result of inefficiencies and corruption.
Arnold Puyok, a Political scientist from Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) in Sabah, said the goodies announced for the young and singles “is an indication that the ruling party is set to win the hearts and minds of first-time voters in the upcoming election”. He said it was still too early to tell if such sweeteners will tilt the hotly-contested elections in BN’s favour.
“Young people are not easily attracted to monetary incentives especially when they are related to electoral politics. They may consider the goodies as a form of government assistance. But whether this is translated into votes remain to be seen,” Arnold said.
But another analyst, Faisal Hazis, believes voters have wised up since Election 2008. “Voters today are smarter, not so easy for them to fall for sweet deals as before,” said the Head of Political Science and International Relations at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas).
“Cash handouts like BR1M do not promise permanent support as shown in the Merdeka Center’s earlier survey some months back where support for Najib rose several percentage points after the first round of BR1M, but dropped not long after it was handed out,” Faisal said.
According to independent pollster Merdeka Center, the PM’s personal approval score dipped four percentage points in the last survey in May from 69 per cent to 65 per cent in February, following a repeat in April of last year’s violent clashes between police and civil society demonstrators lobbying for the electoral roll to be cleaned up.
Herizal Hazri, Deputy Country representative for Asia Foundation, a US-based NGO working to improve governance, law and civil society issues through policy, said the people-friendly budget geared towards low-income earners was a positive move to raise the disposable income and spur domestic growth, but highlighted the lack of controls to monitor government spending.
Professor Jayum A. Jawan, who lectures on politics and government in Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), shared a similar view with Kuching-based Faisal, describing the “one-off handouts” as a populist stunt to fish for votes among the less politically-aware groups who are usually based in rural areas, notably the interior of Malaysia’s two easternmost states across the South China Sea which are still largely forested.
“The allocation for transport, public infrastructure, fishermen, farmers and those in Sabah and Sarawak are very welcome. The one worrisome thing is how will all these be delivered? Will all the proposals reach the man in the interior there?” asked the Deputy Dean of post-graduate studies in UPM’s Faculty of Human Ecology.
“The ‘one-off’ handouts are only temporary and will have a limited impact on some people,” he added.
Jayum said he was concerned that the budget was too heavily concentrated on operational costs and cautioned that the government needed to ensure increased productivity levels among the civil service force to balance out the high operating costs.
Like Jayum, Monash University’s Chin was also hesitant to say that the people-friendly proposals to cut rocketing costs of living that Najib put forward in Budget 2013 would result in voters paying back the favour to BN at the ballot box where it most matters.
“The ultimate test of the budget will be the stock market reaction on Monday; it will surely go up and will also affect the Astro initial public offering (IPO). It all fits in. If he (Najib) does not call for an election now, he’s crazy,” Chin said.
AT A GLANCE
Total Budget: RM251.6 billion
Operational Expenditure: RM201.9 bil
Development Expenditure: RM49.7 bil
GDP growth 2012: 4.5% – 5.0%
GDP growth 2013: 4.5% – 5.5%(Forecast)
Revenue 2012: RM206.2 bil
Revenue 2013: RM208.6 bil
Deficit 2012: 4.5% (?)
Deficit 2013: 4.0% (?)
In politics, yesterday is long term. Politicians adhere to John Maynard Keynes’ ” In the long run we are all dead”. All Prime Minister Najib wants now– and more desperately than before– is a strong mandate to govern. Will he get it? He won’t know until he calls for GE-13 sooner rather than. But the longer he delays this day of reckoning, the more certain it will be that Prime Minister runs the risk of not getting it.
Take the plunge and face your voters, Mr. Prime Minister. Strike the iron while it is hot. Just do it.–Din Merican
The law of diminshing returns is supreme: In this case, the more goodies thrown the less new voters would be persuaded. Voters are intellegent especially the swing voters who Jib and Co are targetting.
I bet many will gladly receive these goodies but will still not vote BN. They want change. Period.
Well, the iron is getting colder by the minutes. The hammer will bounce by the time he strikes it. The poor fella is dreaming of glory which is fast fading into oblivion. Face the truth and call for elections, Pinkie Lips. Bring them on!!!
Take the goodies after all they belong to the rakyat. This Pekan fella has run out of ideas how to engage the rakyat.
Budget has to be focussed on getting our economy going, to reduce unemployment, giving better access to health care, housing and education, apart from facilitations on the development of SMEs – the genuine engine of growth – but not to facilitate and encourage the growth of unworthy callous millionaires through projects and contracts.
Irrespective of what the budget is, my take is more than 90% of the voters already are locked in. A chunk will vote for Najib and a chunk will vote against him. Most voters who are against Najib, judge him less by what he said and more by what kind of leader he is. It is likewise, for Anwar too.
My reading is, there is about 10% of wavering and undecided voters. And never so much of palatables have been dished out to chase so few voters, who on the election day might just do a tossups or would not vote at all.
It is undeniable that the people, especially the younger generation, want improvement and changes to the deemped corrupted Capital. Thus, if the people give victory to the opposition in this GE13 , it is not necessarily they supported Anwar, but it is the one and only alternative front whom they see can capture their wishes.
My observation is no numbers of big blitz of campaigns with negative intones on Anwar or whosoever PR leaders, or its component parties could change the people desire and positiveness to change the government.
Our country is run by charitable organisation, UMNO & Co, where the main beneficial is the organiser and its members.
Dato’ Din, you are right – politicians tend to think about and do things based on relatively short term benefits for their sides though they would never admit it publicly. But Najib does not appear to be in any hurry to have the GE13 soon – he still has about 6 months to go before taking your proposed “plunge”. May be he is waiting for the Budget “candies” to be delivered & take effects while hoping perhaps for the loose Opposition coalition to loosen further as can be seen in the tension existing between PR & DAP in Penang and the publicly known stressed relationship between PAS & DAP – of course, they deny it. We will see if this budget will work for or against the ruling BN – the short time ahead of us will tell.
C’mon vic, enticement isn’t a crime. Propositioning with intent is.
It’s just like when you stroll the streets of Amsterdam and goggle at those windows with enticing ‘wares’. But if the ‘goods’ were to grab at you, then that’s a no-no.
Dato is right by quoting Keynes. All this syiok sendiri is temporary relief and does affect the decision making of the hungry, downtrodden and disenfranchised. Someone said in the last post that the so-called middle class who do pay income taxes, ain’t so ‘middle’ and i agree. Those people who visit blogs like these, and the blokes who commented negatively wrt to the Sacchrine Budget, are ‘upper crust’ and many of them don’t really understand the nitty gritty of basic struggle to juggle and just survive.
Which goes to show, that there’s something desperately and fundamentally wrong with the whole system. It’s not the macroeconomics, fiscal deficits and prudence that most people worry about. It’s what’s tangibly placed before their grubby paws. They can’t afford to think ‘long-term’.
We can argue about deficit budgets, corruption and all sorts of hemorrhaging until the Cows come home. But as long as the Prawn remains the Incumbent, populist policies and injudicious manipulation of the economy will continue unabated. The basic infrastructure of the economy needs a complete overhaul. Our social, educational, judicial, financial, industrial and agricultural sectors are seriously compromised and we are headed in the wrong direction. They can build, but they won’t sustain nor maintain.
For example, instead of developing say textiles, furniture, processed food and footwear SME’s/industries, we should be training technical expertise, buy or otherwise source cutting technology for modern applications like microwave, op-tronics, robotics, nanotech, biotech, oleo-chemical, composite materials, polymer science, alternative fuels etc. For agriculture, high yield cultivars/hybrids, hydroponics, land optimization techniques and aquaculture. Competitiveness and Innovation? Forget it, there ain’t no backbone.
UMNO hasn’t got a clue on how to transform, much less reform. All they have is a slew of imported consultants who are talking through their nether ends. All we need is a significant proportion of our talented diaspora to return to advise. But they won’t, as long as the Goons rule and meritocracy remains a filthy word.
No matter what happens, most Malaysians want change.
In fact, they have been very disappointed with the UMNO/BN government where each successive PM promised change and transformation but ended up dishing out more of the same – rampant corruption, scams and scandals.
In fact this current PM takes the cake with all his vile acts of intimidation against the opposition.
Din.in Najib budget ,this year and last year much have been given to Raayat but Actually much also have been stolen from Raayat.
Cowgate,1MDB,Ampang LRT,Submarine and other defence contract,Felda Global listing.etc etc.
Well Hamid, that flur can’t wait too long.
The Auditor Gen’s report is bound to cause a great deal of anguish and hand wringing on the part of the Goons. By delaying, Jib’s ‘deer in the headlamp’ startle reflex is gonna do him in. Either way, he’s roti bakar – er, toast. He’ll be run outta town, most likely without his margarine and ‘kaya.’ Dopey will have his last laugh.., and Octo’s tentacles will be grasping at turds.
Spare me all the mumbo jumbo that giving out such goodies are not enticement. It’s only because the government says so. Not proven in a just court.
A good government would not give out goodies in such manner. It’s pure handouts…cash to so and so. It’s is pure vote buying.
What Malaysian or may be myself wishes are solid institutions with long terms policies for all. Areas in dire need of strong foundation to ensure the survival of all Malaysians are education, employment, transportation, housing and policies to generate sensible economy to prosper the nation.
Cheap cars only contribute to massive traffic jams, increases fuel consumptions. Car’s loans have made many bankrupt while those car’s dealers cashes in on someone else misery.
Like me many are simple laymen surviving daily. And we feel the pitch whenever the economy shifts. We just can’t comprehend or accept such wastage in our expends. So don’t tell me what is or what is not enticement.
Najib, if you or your boys are reading this blog, let me remind you that PENANGITES PAY TAXES TOO! And you gave nothing back, not even the 200 buses you promised in October 2010! We will remember you and your JANJI JANJI come election day!
”we should be training technical expertise, buy or otherwise source cutting technology for modern applications like…..” CLF
nice dream but it won’t enrich the cronies like what mega projects do and where are they going to get the teachers? local brew?
I was once in such an institute (GMI) in KL, they had problem getting students who could understand what they taught. most importantly we have to get ‘good’ teachers for our primary and secondary education – which is a prerequisite for a quality training.
let the budget be just that what it is – electioneering, so Mr. PM and rosmah please call the election soon, the country has been on auto – pilot ever since you took over, you have done next to nothing.
http://www.youtube.com/user/mediarakyat#p/a/u/2/DJ6y2NRKxu0/
what wares are you talking about in Amsterdam, octopusses?
you get better ones in Reeperbahn, Hamburg!
You see reeper, these flurs are stuck in the gostan gear for the past decade or so. They can’t imagine what’s happening in industry, especially in E&E which is our linchpin in manufactured exports. Nor do they have ideas of developing hi end technology like laser comm, cryogenics, robotics, ceramics, chemosynthesis etc. Heck, we don’t even have a home-grown ‘smart-phone’ manufacturer! The flurs just do the relabelling of cheapo Chinapek locally and try to pass it off as 1 Something.
So what do the UMNO hacks do? They try to sell ‘manufactured’ birds-nest back to PRC, and try to hock off ‘gamat’, tongkat ali, kacip fatimah and a host of useless pseudo-scientific stuff and magical potions. Dey, enough lah. They might be stupid, but they appear smart with i-Phones/Pads.
I’m keenly aware of the hideous dumbing down of our industry, which parallels the moronic ‘education’ system. Instead of all these dysfunctional ‘Bumi’ handouts to SME/I usually used primarily to buy Teutonic barges and mean-machines that clog our thoroughfares, they should acquire new technologies like what the S.Koreans, Taiwanese, Singaporeans and even the Turkish do. What is the use of chucking money at SMEs who do not have an inkling of what International Standards stand for? And they still want to develop apparel, textiles and all those low class industries.., which belong to last century! The fact remains that our workforce is either so dumb or unwilling to learn new things – and our Gomen goons are so inept, that they can’t even differentiate a tit from a warbler (bird brains).
Besides the fact that they can’t even get enough ‘trainable’ foreign workers in to man the industry lines. Captains of Industry have morphed into Pirates of Mal-Economics and Misplaced Priorities.
The mainstream media paints a “El Fantastico Budget”
The new media says ” Its our money anyway”
Do it like we did here.
Grab the goodies and send a much stronger signal to ‘em… but I’m afraid the signal sent will be much too late after all.
That Wind of Change will grow into a “Typhoon” soon.
cash handouts? up to their old tricks again huh? underestimating the voters and insulting their intelligence. That money should be put into education. thats the “handout” the children need so that they can work and earn a decent living. So their lives have a good start. WHEN are you going to learn PM?
A budget of candies? Where are the condoms – the JAWI sanctioned ‘halal’ or Made in Malaysia kosher condoms for export to Jihadists fighting the infidels??
Any sweeteners for the local movie industry so they could produce quality movies as a counter to the one poorly produced by the Imbecile now under arrest in Semper fi’s neck of the woods? This will create jobs for UMNOputras who are fast running short of cows to milk.
Time is ticking. Have you guys seen Bibi’s Bomb??
You guys have until Spring or Summer to enjoy the fruits of your labour on this Earth – fruits of your ill gotten gains included. After that?? After that, the guys can look forward to the 72 dark-eyed virgins waiting for them at the Gates of Paradise.
There have been doubts expressed as to whether there will be 36 male virgins for our gals. According to the syariah court judge who is always a man, he says this is in line with UMNO’s redistribution economics. The women will have to share their men. Now who says Sigmund Freud has been wrong on the sexual suppression theory? Now that is a different matter for another day.
But we can’t be sure if there is another day after the summer of 2013. Thanks to Bibi’s Bomb.
Too much candies, now Malaysians are diabetic and insulin dependent. Around election time Malaysians go on a candy splurge courtesy of Najib and Co. After election become hypoglycemic with bad withdrawal syndrome, too much withdrawals from ATM ha ha
Well when you pay peanuts you get monkeys. In this case many many peanuts & bananas have been paid, hence they expect lotsa monkeying around. Perhaps Bn thinks that indeed we are monkeys. Hence more peanuts would do
”The fact remains that our workforce is either so dumb or unwilling to learn new things – ….” CLF
for ca. 50% of the workforce nothing matters because they have job security and they know that the other 50% is there to work for them. that being the case why should they learn new technology? even in the executive level it is the same story.
for this section of the population malaysia is the paradise on earth (minus the 72 virgins) – how long can it be financed.
the fact remains that our leaders are not stupid but well educated in exclusive institutions and experienced. they know in which direction the country is heading.
the dumbing down of the population and SMEs has paid off for them. they will reap their profits and live like Lords for the rest of their life – thanks to people like the cyber-lowlifes Ilham etc. who think that they are super intelligent but in reality gullible like peasants.
the Badjet 2013 is prepared for the rural and civil servants (their safe votes) with small handouts for the others. it is sure to crash land. the people of malaysia will succumb to this ‘Bauenfängerei’ again. life goes on in gostan land.
my unsolicited pessimistic opinion.
..Where is the MACC? This is not a Budget…it should be rephrase…