Key trends in the looming GE13
February 28, 2012
Key trends in the looming GE13
by Karim Raslan @www.thestar.com.my
Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is slated to win the next general election, with the margin depending on how both sides of the political divide appeal to and win over the 1.9 million new voters.
I have spent the past three weeks almost exclusively in Malaysia – travelling and listening to people. A lot of this time has inevitably been spent with fellow writers and editors.
In fact, journalists prefer talking to other journalists so there’s always a danger that we’re living in a bubble — something that we often accuse politicians of doing! At the same time, and as explained by Malaysian Insider’s Jahabar Sadiq: “We were caught napping in 2008. Ever since, we’ve been over-compensating.”
So bearing in mind our collective fear of being wrong, here – for what it’s worth – are the key trends I’ve identified that will feature in the next general election (GE).
- The delayed pendulum: Malaysian GEs have tended to follow a pendulum-like movement, with swings to and from Barisan National (BN) in alternate polls.
However, in 2012/3 there will be a subsidiary trend at work in Sabah, Sarawak and Johor (dubbed BN’s “Fixed Deposit”) if there is a shift of Chinese support while the rest of the peninsula reverts to form.
- The democracy wave from Singapore: The vote in southern Johor will be impacted by the many Malaysians who live and work in the city-state.
Having observed the republic’s two nation-wide polls (parliamentary and presidential) in 2011 and witnessed the extent to which the PAP government subsequently reversed unpopular housing, healthcare and immigration policies, Johoreans will have learnt the value of tactical voting in order to engineer policy shifts.
- Sabah: West Malaysian/UMNO leaders continue to underestimate the importance of the Royal Commission of Inquiry on Illegal Immigrants for Sabahans (especially the KadazanDusun and Murut communities).
- The Prime Minister’s two key performance indicators (KPIs): Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is slated to win the next GE.
However, victory is only the first of his KPIs.bThe second is that he must surpass his predecessor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s 2008 showing (140 seats). Indeed, the rationale behind Najib’s rise to the premiership was his unspoken promise of returning UMNO (and BN) to its earlier glory. Failure to achieve this will lead to a reassessment of his leadership.
- Najib’s presidential style campaign: It has boosted the premier’s approval ratings. Given the fact that Malaysia has adopted the Westminster system, the PM’s popularity has not translated into greater support for UMNO (or BN), leaving many potential candidates to struggle.
As such, there is no guarantee that Najib’s personal popularity will strengthen BN in the 13th GE.
- Newly-registered voters: Estimated at some 1.9 million, both sides are scratching their heads as to how to appeal to and win over this disparate and largely disinterested mass of voters.
There appears to be little party loyalty and commitment among this group. Their support may well depend on a last-minute and/or unexpected political “black swan-type” event triggering a sudden and massive swing in either coalition’s favour.
- Indian community: The community is no longer virulently anti-Barisan. While Malaysian Indians are by no means “grateful”, the Hindraf-connected anger has dissipated with the departure of MIC honcho Datuk Seri Samy Vellu and Datuk Seri G. Palanivel’s low-key leadership.
The Indian vote will help BN in countless marginal seats.
- NFC – “Istana” Mat Deros for 2012: In 2008 we had UMNO’s Port Klang Assemblyman, the late Zakaria Mat Deros, and his infamous “Istana” built on allegedly illegally-acquired land.
In 2012/13 we have the National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) scandal, which continues to unfold.The NFC has been very damaging in rural Malay and Indian communities where voters are most familiar with the economics of cattle-rearing.
- Changing face of domestic politics: Malaysian politics is shifting. This will be the last GE for “institutional” players, the UMNO warlords who refuse to court public opinion.
Most of these political dinosaurs can’t be bothered to engage with the public, debate and/or win support from the media. Indeed, party hacks – from both BN and Pakatan – will become increasingly unpopular and loathed.
They have no future and will be replaced by those who can think, talk and argue in public such as Saifuddin Abdullah, Zambry Abdul Kadir and Shabery Cheek.
Emotional intelligence and humility will also be important. The absence of these two qualities will lead to the premature political demise of certain candidates.
- Kedah: Pakatan extols its successes in Penang and Selangor. However, the coalition is strangely silent about the Kedah government’s less than sterling record of administration.
- Public trust in the Government: Widespread cynicism and distrust will force the Government to shelve many policy and business initiatives.
BN’s ability to command public support without extensive consultation and stakeholder engagement has evaporated. Put all this together and what do you get? A very, very interesting 2012/13 indeed.
Think, Think: The Golden Circle
Najib wants a strong mandate from Malaysian voters. He would like to have 2/3rd majority in Parliament. If he can do that, his political hand will be strengthened to enable him to deal with his own party and opponents of his reformist agenda. But can he do it? I am not sure, at least not as confident as Karim Raslan.
His personal popularity won’t be enough. UMNO-BN is plagued by scandals. Najib has been unable to do much with NFC and Lynas (Pahang) for example. His 1Malaysia concept has been compromised by his own action of pandering to Perkasa and UMNO warloads. His transformation programme remains at the level of rhetoric. He is not tough on corruption. And Malaysians are not sure if they can trust him. It is tough for UMNO-BN to win big as in 2004. The Opposition remains cohesive and focused, and attempts by mainstream pro-government media to discredit it have not had the desired effect.–Din Merican
dinobeano - February 28, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Karim Raslan is in a bubble alright… probably listening more to pro-establishment colleagues in MSM than really talking to the people on the ground in the know and who really matters.
Najib will be returned to power, this I agree, simply because the constituencies are delineated in BN’s favour whichever way you cut it.. but he will be limping on a crutch walking back to the master bedroom in Seri Perdana. I think he will lose more seats, just giving him a very tight and slim simple majority….
Greenbug - February 29, 2012 at 2:30 am
Mahathir will be an election issue since the Opposition sees him as the man behind spineless Najib. Here is something on the former Prime Minister and his warped views on the NEP:
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com
Mahathir and his litany of lies
Written by John Kashuerin(02-28-12)
Former premier, or as many now call him de facto prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, has a disingenuous take on the New Economic Policy (NEP 1970-1990). This is not surprising at all since the man is not only a pathological liar, but in a world double first, also a congenital one.
To know about Malaysia, the Malay-speaking communities, Umno and Mahathir, follow the Money Trail and keep an eye on the money, most of it allegedly stolen from the Public Treasury if not from the non-Malays and Malays alike.
Mahathir claims, in response to criticisms by Kelantan Umno chief Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, that the NEP benefited everyone including non-Malays. As proof he cites a few non-Malay billionaires apparently more than close to him.
This is the first time that we are being told by anyone in “authority” that one objective of the NEP, no doubt hidden until Mahathir decided to blab, was to help create non-Malay billionaires.
The public perception is that these so-called non-Malay billionaires are his nominees and that of his kind. In return for their modest “cut”, these nominees ensure that a large part of his wealth and that of the fat cats remains securely away from the poor Malays.
For obvious reasons, he doesn’t want the Malay-speaking communities in particular to wise up to the fact that he and his kind have been virtually stealing from the Public Treasury at their expense and the nation at large.
Billionaire friends and Proxies
Robert Kuok Hock Nien, 89, coming from old money in Johore, was reluctant to remain a crony of the ruling elite for long and fled to Hong Kong many years ago although he still remains a Malaysian. He’s probably waiting for Mahathir to die before he returns home to rescue and re-build his Malaysian assets and secures them away from the Umno Supreme Council.
Kuok had to pay a heavy price in the meantime when he reportedly lost his Sugar Empire in Malaysia in the process to Felda, while another Mahathir crony Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary recently took over Proton for a song, prompting rumors that the real buyer was Mahathir himself and his sons . It would be poetic justice if Mahathir goes bankrupt running Proton although he may be as rich as Bill Gates, if not richer, at the moment.
Mahathir did not mention the super duper wealthy Malays despite Razaleigh pointing out that the NEP was not meant to create a Malay capitalist class. The NEP pledged to increase Malay participation in the economy, points out Razaleigh. One way was to ensure that the Malays as a community owned, managed and controlled 30 per cent of Malaysia’s corporate wealth — that publicly listed — by 1990.Nothing of that sort happened.
Ripe for a people’s revolution?
The Umno Government, like Mahathir, likes to include GLCs as part of the 30 per cent. The GLCs belong to the state and hence the people and not just one community.
If it’s true that nine million Orang Asli, Natives of Sabah and Sarawak and Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia own shares through Permodalan Nasional Berhad, so what? It is said that these are lies, damn lies and statistics.
Ninety per cent of these nine million shareholders have less than a few hundred ringgit in their account. Again, the main hindrance is the lack of access to credit and/or excessive interest which prevents unit trust holders, for one, from building up their portfolios.
Mahathir claims that 500, 000 students obtained a higher education through PNB. These could have been educated anyway, with or without the NEP, through the PTPTN (Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional) or National Higher Education Fund Board.
He didn’t mention government scholarships.Most of these opportunities were monopolized by the children of the elite i.e. from the families of the war lords and mini political dynasties who run Umno branches as Sdn Bhd with the party functioning as a Holding Company.
Even the families of the Sultans have been left out unless they own, control and manage Umno branches. Is it any wonder therefore that Razaleigh is up in arms, literally urging a Malay, if not Malaysian, Spring. Malaysia is ripe for a People’s Revolution, perhaps peaceful, but a bloody one cannot be ruled out.
Ali Baba and Shahrizat-style contracts
There are shades of the old feudalistic English Class System combined with the ancient function/work-based caste system of ancient India in this. In India, those who remained permanently at the top irrespective of grey matter and energy were known as Brahmins. The caste system, like the old English Class System, is rigid and does not provide for upward social mobility.
Umno is a feudalistic caste/class-ridden party divorced from the masses and with little evidence of democracy and egalitarianism. In short, the worst exploiters of the Malay-speaking communities are other Malays themselves who have come to form a permanent exploiting class, squatting on Malay and non-Malay alike.
The NEP also pledged to eliminate the identification of race with economic function and place of residence. The reality is that the civil service — including the Judiciary and Diplomatic Service –is composed 90 per cent from members of one community who make up 55 per cent of the population. More accurately, nepotism ensures that the bulk of these 90 per cent are from the elite.
This is not what Article 153 in the Federal Constitution is all about. The 1st Prong of Article 153 reserves a special position for the Orang Asli, Natives of Sabah and Sarawak and the Malay-speaking communities of Peninsular Malaysia in four specific, i.e. limited, areas by way of a reasonable proportion: intake into the civil service; intake into institutions of higher learning owned by the government and training privileges; government scholarships; and opportunities from the government to do business. On this last score, Umno politicians literally continue to steal from the Public Treasury through Ali Baba and/or Shahrizat Abdul Jalil-style contracts.
Article 153, under its 2nd Prong, pledged to respect the legitimate interests of the non-Malay communities. The fact of the matter is that the NEP, which takes of from Article 153, did not benefit the people it was designed to help.
Compare with Brunei and Singapore
Eradication of poverty irrespective of race, colour, caste or creed is one of the three tenets of the NEP. Fifty-five years after the British colonialists left, the rural population still hover just above and below the poverty line, bogged down by the dependency syndrome which has them in Umno’s vice-like grip. Most of them have nothing more than the proverbial shirts on their backs and eeking out a hand to mouth existence. The main element missing is access to credit which would have greatly assisted them to emerge as small, independent farmers and free them from Umno’s clutches.
Elsewhere, in both rural and urban areas, 450,000 Indians remain in a legal twilight zone as stateless people. These, the worst of Hindraf Makkal Sakthi’s underclass constituency, are deliberately kept by the powers that be as a readily-available local source of cheap labour to do the most difficult, dangerous and dirty jobs.
Sabah and Sarawak, supposedly equal partners of Malaya under the 1963 Malaysia Agreement, are the poorest states in the Federation, according to the World Bank. Their fates are a stark contrast to that of neighbouring Brunei which stayed out of Malaysia at the 11th hour and Singapore which was expelled in 1965 after two years.
Can there be better proof that Mahathir’s take on NEP is nothing more than a series of half-truths – a litany of lies.
Malaysia Chronicle
Gurubachan Singh - February 29, 2012 at 7:37 am
No news from Webelos, Semper Fi and Anak Malaya. Where are these guys? In SlumberLand?–Din Merican
dinobeano - February 29, 2012 at 8:25 am
dun wori la..by hook n by crook, they will win la…as usual! whether convincingly or not – that;s another story!
malaun - February 29, 2012 at 9:36 am
I have spent the past three weeks almost exclusively in Malaysia – travelling and listening to people. A lot of this time has inevitably been spent with fellow writers and editors.- Karim Raslan
I don’t think Karim Raslan has the pulse of the people or he’s listening using a BN stethoscope. If he had spent his time at the various ceramahs he would have a better handle of how the population feels about Ah Jib Gor. He’s playing it safe. I would have expected him to say Najib may win but BN will be badly beaten come this election. Instead he ended with a question.
orang malaya - February 29, 2012 at 9:44 am
Malaun, yes, victory by tipu, duit, postal votes dll. Kita ni semua bodoh dan buta huruf. Cry Geranimo.
geranimo - February 29, 2012 at 9:58 am
No news from Webelos, Semper Fi and Anak Malaya. Where are these guys? — Din Merican
Anak Malaya? You mean orang malaya? He is here. Sometimes 2+1 is not equal to 3 but 1.
scarlet.pimpernel - March 1, 2012 at 2:00 am
Scarlet.pimpernal, Goolbatok is nephew of Sukabeer Singh (Sukhbeer)
orang malaya - March 1, 2012 at 6:27 am
I thought his cousin is Jastwant Singh.
scarlet.pimpernel - March 1, 2012 at 10:17 am