Hulu Selangor: It is still to close to call

April 22, 2010

Hulu Selangor: It is still too close to call

by Hafiz Yatim (April 21, 2010)

Analysis : As the campaign period in Hulu Selangor enters its halfway point, the presence of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak today and respected PAS clergy and Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat will affect only the fence sitters.

While political analysts see the presence of the two as having some effect, it would not enough to sway the majority of the 64,500 voters who have already decided on their man.

Najib, who is Selangor UMNO chief, is scheduled to meet party workers in Hulu Selangor later this evening and visit the operations rooms in Batang Kali, Kuala Kubu Baru and Hulu Bernam.

On Friday, Nik Aziz (left), the PAS spiritual advisor, will arrive to boost PKR’s Zaid Ibrahim, a fellow Kelantanese, in his campaign.

Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research director Ibrahim Suffian said there are approximately 10 percent of undecided Malay voters.

“This means 1,000 to 2,000 votes could be up for grabs. Certainly, the presence of Najib and Nik Aziz will have some effect.

“But I feel most of the voters have already made up their minds,” he said.

Meanwhile, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political science lecturer professor Mohammad Agus Yusoff said BN and UMNO have the upper hand in attracting the Malay votes.

“Hulu Selangor is traditionally a BN and Umno stronghold and this would be to the coalition’s advantage. UMNO and BN will use its well-oiled federal machinery while Pakatan will fight back with the help of the Selangor state machinery,” he said.

Ibrahim, however, is of the opinion that Najib’s presence was more towards pacifying UMNO members who strongly felt the party should contest, and not MIC.

“With that not going UMNO’s way and also not having its choice of V Mugilan as their candidate approved, Najib will try and assure UMNO members that P Kamalanathan is a worthwhile compromise candidate.

“Certainly, Kamalanathan’s candidacy is an issue that Najib has to address.”

Boost for Zaid

The Merdeka Centre director also felt that Nik Aziz’s presence will help assure the Islamic party’s supporters to vote for Zaid, despite allegations he was a former drinker.

“I think Nik Aziz’s presence is to convince its party members and supporters in Hulu Selangor that Zaid has repented and is the right candidate,” he said.

Agus (right) agreed that the hardcore PAS supporters will vote for Zaid following Nik Aziz’s arrival but it would be interesting to see how the non-Malays vote. He said 70 percent of the Chinese community will maintain their votes for Pakatan while he foresees the Indian votes returning to BN.

“The Chinese community since 2008 have been seen to be Pakatan sympathisers. They see the bigger picture of justice, economy and rights as issues dear to their hearts. They will find Zaid an ideal candidate to represent them,” he said.

The political scientist said the time of Makkal Sakthi is over and he feels the Indian voters will return to MIC/BN despite uneasiness over Kamalanathan’s candidacy.

Too close to call

Despite Zaid’s vast experience and pedigree in UMNO, and Kamalanathan’s greenhorn qualities, both agreed the race this Sunday is too close to call. Ibrahim said Zaid, a lawyer, former lawmaker, and minister, who has vast experience, has the edge.

“However, Kamalanathan has the full backing of the UMNO and the federal machinery. This could well make the difference.”

Ibrahim (left) said the flak that Zaid has been receiving for the past couple of days would not have much impact on the election.

He said at the Bukit Gantang by-election last year, Nizar Jamaluddin had been labelled as a traitor. And in Bagan Pinang, Isa Samad had been branded as corrupt.

“Despite the allegations, both won handsomely. Hence, the character assassination on Zaid may not have much impact and may even win him votes.”On the other hand, we have to remember that in the Permatang Pasir by-election, the smear campaign on BN and UMNO candidate Rohaizat Othman had worked well, resulting in PAS winning.

Agus said that instead a lot will depend on how the younger generation votes in Hulu Selangor. “In the last election, the younger generation of Malays, Chinese and Indian votes went to PKR and the opposition. It would be interesting to see how this would go this time around. It is a sign of a maturing democracy that voters would not be voting along racial lines.”

Ibrahim agreed that as many voters are working in Kuala Lumpur or Shah Alam, they will be well-informed of the issues, and they could well make the difference in who wins and loses.

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